Circana: Stage set for ‘rocky’ start to holiday shopping season
October’s retail sales revealed the impact of headwinds challenging consumers as they head into the core holiday shopping season.
That’s according to Circana, which noted that in the four weeks ending Nov. 1, consumer spending prioritization remained ever present, helping to bring 2% growth to overall U.S. retail sales revenue. But unit demand remained flat during the period compared to the same time in 2024.
“U.S. consumers continue to demonstrate their resiliency and flexibility in navigating the challenges facing them,” the report stated. “However, that resiliency includes spending more while being able to afford and get less.
In October, consumers continued to prioritize spending on food over more discretionary purchases. Retail food and beverage sales revenue was up 3%, and unit sales were up 1%.
[READ MORE: NRF: Store shelves well stocked for holidays, tariff price hikes ‘minimized’]
Non-edible consumer packaged goods dollars were up 1%, while unit sales declined 2%. Discretionary general merchandise retail dollar sales declined 1%, and unit demand fell 4% compared to the same period a year ago..
Declines in discretionary spending and unit demand as the holiday shopping season gets underway are an indication of the current consumer volatility, particularly up against last year’s early season declines, noted Circana. To date, through the week ending Nov. 8, fourth-quarter 2025 sales revenue of discretionary general merchandise is down 1% from this time last year, and unit demand is down 3%.
Compared to two years ago, discretionary general merchandise sales for this period are down 10% in dollars and 9% in units.
“The holiday season does not bring more money into consumers’ pockets, which means pockets of retail growth will not be robust,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry analyst for Circana. “Early shopping behavior will influence the balance of the holiday season, so marketers need to put their best foot forward now in order to capture their share of a discerning market.”
The stage is set for a “rocky” start to the holiday shopping season, Circana said. According to Circana’s 2025 Holiday Purchase Intentions Study, holiday spending is projected to be between a 1% decline and 2% increase compared to last year, with unit declines falling by as much as 2.5% during the traditional November and December shopping period.
