Challenger forecasts 2024 holiday hiring will be down from last year
U.S. retailers will hire fewer seasonal employees this holiday season than last year as the labor market cools and consumers remain cautious.
That’s according to global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas’s annual Seasonal Retail Hiring Outlook. With the current softening in both the labor market and economy, Challenger expects retailers will add 520,000 jobs in the final quarter of 2024, which is the second-lowest total since 2009. It’s also lower than last year, when retailers added 564,200 new jobs, according to the firm’s analysis of non-seasonally adjusted data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“This prediction considers that now, job gains are falling, and consumers have tightened spending,” said Andrew Challenger, labor expert and senior VP of Challenger, Gray & Christmas. “That said, the cooling seems to be slow. Seasonal employers will add jobs, but need may fluctuate as the season progresses.”
Challenger began tracking seasonal hiring announcements in 2012. Since 2015, Amazon has announced the most hiring plans of any employer every year, except for 2020, when Target took the lead. Amazon has not yet announced its 2024 seasonal hiring plans.
“The pandemic realigned need, and fluctuating consumer habits make it difficult for companies to determine how much staff is needed, both in-store and for online orders,” said Challenger. “As companies navigate these evolving conditions, the flexibility to adapt to changing demand will be key in determining the final outcomes of seasonal hiring efforts. Ultimately, while the hiring landscape may be less aggressive than in recent years, it remains an essential part of the holiday economy.”
So far this season, Challenger has tracked 178,350 planned seasonal hires. (Many companies have not yet announced their holiday hiring plans.) The companies who have announced plans to date include Target, which said it plans to hire 100,000 holiday workers in its stores and fulfillment centers, which is consistent with its seasonal hiring plans for the past few years. Bath & Body Works plans to hire 30,000 seasonal workers at its stores in the U.S. and Canada, and 2,700 at the company's fulfillment centers.
Burlington Stores announced plans to hire 1,500 full-time and 23,000 part-time seasonal workers this season. Grocer Aldi will hire 13,000 this holiday season, while 1-800-Flowers is looking to hire 8,000 seasonal associates, in line with their efforts for six of the last eight years.
Kohl’s is holding a recruitment event to hire “thousands of associates” at the company’s stores Sept. 19-20.
Transportation and Warehousing
Similarly to retail, the transportation and warehousing sector saw huge disruptions in both supply chain and consumer behavior. According to the BLS, this sector added 552,300 seasonal employees in 2021, the most ever added. Last season, this sector added 336,400 seasonal workers.
“Transportation, shipping, and warehousing may not see the dramatic seasonal hiring spikes of previous years due to ongoing staffing stabilization and the increased use of automation,” explained Challenger.
