Budgets/Spending/Market Size

New York - The Deloitte Consumer Spending Index moved down again in September, showing the second month of small declines. The Index tracks consumer cash flow as an indicator of future consumer spending.

Safeway plans to exit the Chicago market where it operates 72 supermarkets under the Dominick’s banner by early 2014 after posting third quarter profits that were roughly half those of the comparable period the prior year.
The decision to exit Chicago follows similar move earlier this year when Safeway announced the sale of its Canadian operations.

Philadelphia -- More than three-fourths (79%) of retailers expect an increase in sales this holiday season – the highest percentage seen since the financial downturn. That’s according to global management consultancy Hay Group’s seventh annual retail holiday survey, whose results were more optimistic that several other holiday forecasts.

New York -- U.S. chain-store sales posted a gain of 4.0% for the fiscal month of September on a year-over-year basis according to a tally compiled by the International Council of Shopping Centers. Excluding gasoline sales, the September tally would actually be +5.1%.

San Francisco - Walk-by conversion and in-store engagements among U.S., consumers slipped in September compared to August as consumers became more cautious and less compelled to shop after back-to-school spending. In-store analytics technology vendor Euclid’s U.S. Retail Benchmarks for September 2013, based on 20 million domestic shopping sessions, suggest September same-store and total store sales may be sluggish for many retailers.

Specific findings include:

Shopper activity decreased this September, in line with ShopperTrak’s predictions. Total retail store shopper traffic for the month decreased 20.2% compared to August. In a year-over-year comparison, shopper traffic for September 2013 decreased 6.9% compared to the same month last year.

Back-to-school shopping activity that peaked in August slowed as school came back in session. The early Labor Day (Sept. 2) compounded the reduction in September’s shopper activity by combining two normally distinct shopping opportunities into just one.

New York -- A report by Wall Street Journal revealed that private equity investor Tower Three Partners will sell its final 3.9 million shares in Restoration Hardware Holdings, marking an exit for the buyout firms that acquired the home furnishings retailer in 2008.

Restoration Hardware’s private-equity backers have been cashing out amid a 90% rally in the stock this year, according to the report.

I don’t want to be a Grinch, but things aren’t looking too promising for retailers who were hoping to end the year on a holiday high note. But, before I get into more predictions on retail sales this holiday season, it might be a good idea to talk a little bit about why I’m feeling so lukewarm about the prospects for a 2013 end-of-year bonanza.