Adobe: Initial holiday e-commerce spending up 10%, passes $77 billion
Online holiday spending is off to a strong start based on the first 24 days of the holiday season — with electronics in the lead.
According to Adobe Analytics data for Nov. 1-24, U.S. consumers have spent $77.4 billion online, up 9.6% year-over-year and trending above Adobe’s full holiday season forecast of 8.4% year-over-year growth. Out of the first 24 days, Adobe has tracked 21 days so far as seeing consumers spend more than $3 billion online in a single day (up from 16 days in the same period in 2023).
[READ MORE: Adobe: U.S. online holiday spend to shatter records at $240.8 billion]
At the category level, Adobe says U.S. consumers have spent the most on electronics so far, coming in at $17.7 billion (up 11.4% year-over-year). Two categories have outpaced electronics in terms of year-over-year growth, including apparel ($14.5 billion, up 13.4% year-over-year) and grocery ($7.5 billion, up 16.8% year-over-year).
Other categories with notable year-over-year growth include furniture/bedding ($9.5 billion, up 7.2% year-over-year) and cosmetics ($3.2 billion, up 10.1% year-over-year).
Mobile shopping surges
In the first 24 days of November 2024, 51.6% of online spend (up from 49.5% in the comparable period last year) happened through a mobile device, representing $39.9 billion in online spend, up a significant 13.3% year-over-year. Adobe forecasts mobile spending will a record $128.1 billion for the full holiday season at 12.8% year-over-year growth.
During the same period, curbside pickup accounted for 15.9% of orders for retailers who offer the service. This is down from 17.5% share in the comparable period in 2023. Adobe expects usage of curbside pickup will increase in December, as consumers leverage it to avoid shipping delays and cut down on costs in some cases.
Also In the first 24 days of November, the flexible buy now pay later (BNPL) payment method has driven $5.7 billion in online spend, up 3.6% year-over-year. This represents $200 million more than the comparable period in 2023. Adobe expects BNPL usage to ramp up during Cyber Week and hit a new record on Cyber Monday ($993 million, up 5.6% year-over-year). BNPL has also been predominantly driven by mobile shopping, with its share of spend hitting 79.1% so far this season.
Forecast for Cyber Week
Cyber Week (the five-day period including Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday) is expected to drive $40.6 billion in online spend, up 7% year-over-year and representing 16.9% of the overall holiday season.
Adobe predicts that Cyber Monday (Dec. 2) will remain the biggest shopping day of both the holiday season and the year, driving a record $13.2 billion in spend, up 6.1% year-over-year.
Black Friday, Nov. 29 ($10.8 billion, up 9.9% YoY) and Thanksgiving Day, Nov. 28 ($6.1 billion, up 8.7% YoY) are both expected to outpace Cyber Monday in year-over-year growth, as consumers embrace earlier deals promoted by U.S. retailers.
Adobe figures are not adjusted for inflation, but if online deflation were factored in, the company says growth in consumer spend would be even stronger.
"The holiday season is off to a strong start, and we see a consumer willing to splurge on more expensive items in categories from electronics to appliances, partly in response to persistent discounts," said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital Insights. "Shoppers are also embracing new ways to shop online this season, from the rise in mobile shopping that will again eclipse desktop, to the use of generative AI-powered chat bots as a shopping assistant."
Adobe Analytics data covers more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories. Adobe Analytics is part of Adobe Experience Cloud.
