Adobe: Holiday e-commerce trends up; Cyber Monday set to break records

The first 20 days of the holiday season show stronger-than-expected e-commerce activity, and Cyber Monday is poised to be the biggest online shopping day ever.

According to new Adobe Analytics data, during the first 20 days of the 2023 November- December holiday season (Nov. 1 to Nov. 20), consumers have spent $63.2 billion online, up 5% year-over-year (YoY) and outpacing Adobe’s full holiday season forecast of 4.8% YoY growth. This follows record-breaking online spending recorded by Adobe in October 2023.

Adobe data indicates that 17 of the first 20 days of November saw consumers spend over $3 billion online in a single day, a new record. In the comparable period in 2022, 13 days had more than $3 billion in online spending. Adobe’s early analysis of the season suggests that despite rising costs elsewhere, such as student loan repayments and high interest rates, consumers are finding discounts online and willing to spend.  

Cyber Monday set to hit new heights 

Cyber Monday is forecasted to remain the season’s and year’s biggest online shopping day at a record-breaking $12 billion, up 6.1% YoY and a level that would make it the biggest single online shopping day of all time. 

Other findings 

• In the first 20 days of November, 48.7% of online spend (up from 45.5% in the comparable period in 2022) happened through a mobile device. This represents $30.8 billion in online spend, up a significant 12.4% YoY. Mobile spending is set to hit a record $113 billion for the full holiday season, at 13.7% YoY growth.
• In the first 20 days of November, the flexible ‘buy now, pay later’ (BNPL) payment method has driven $4.9 billion in online spend, up a significant 14.5% YoY. This represents $620 million more than the comparable period in 2022. Year-to-date (Jan. 2023 to Nov. 20, 2023), revenue from BNPL has topped $63.4 billion, up 14.4% YoY.  
• The first 20 days of November also saw curbside pickup account for 17.1% of orders for retailers who offer the service. This is down from 19.4% share in the comparable period the prior year, which Adobe says is an indicator that consumers are seeing favorable shipping terms and returning to in-store shopping. Adobe expects usage of curbside pickup will increase in December, as consumers leverage it to cut back on shipping costs and avoid shipping delays.  

“All eyes are on the consumer, given a holiday season where shoppers are dealing with rising costs, and retailers are contending with an uncertain demand environment,” said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital Insights. “E-commerce growth has remained resilient so far due to strong early discounts, while also being driven by more impulse shopping on mobile devices and an uptick in the use of flexible payment methods.” 

The report covers the period from Nov. 1-20, 2023, and is based on Adobe Analytics data covering over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories. Adobe Analytics is part of Adobe Experience Cloud.