Adobe: Cyber Monday online sales look promising

A robust Cyber Monday is expected to help counteract weaker online holiday shopping performance during Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

According to new data from Adobe Analytics, Cyber Week (the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) will generate $34.8 billion in online spend, up 2.8% year-over-year (YoY), and represent 16.3% share of the full November-December 2022 holiday season.

Cyber Monday is expected to remain the biggest online shopping day of both the holiday season and full year 2022 at $11.2 billion, up 5.1% YoY. However, Adobe advises that other traditional holiday e-commerce days are losing prominence as online shopping spreads out throughout the season.

Adobe forecasts that Black Friday will bring in $9 billion in online spending (up 1% YoY), while Thanksgiving Day online sales will total $5.1 billion (down 1% YoY).

[Read more: Adobe: Early deals drive $72 billion in online holiday spend]

Looking at the first three weeks (Nov. 1 - Nov. 21) of the November-December 2022 holiday season, Adobe finds that consumers have spent $64.59 billion online, essentially flat with 0.1% YoY growth. However, Adobe advises that this minor uptick shows that despite challenges such as persistent inflation, consumers still have a strong appetite for holiday shopping. 

Adobe has tracked nine days where shoppers spent over $2 billion online in a single day and 12 days with online spending levels at over $3 billion, on par with e-commerce performance during the same period in 2021.

Additional insights:

• Online discounts for toys have hit a record high as observed by Adobe, peaking at 30% off listed price in the first three weeks of the holiday season. Online sales of toys are up 172% compared to daily average sales in October 2022.
• Other strong discounts have been observed in electronics (22%), computers (14%), appliances (13%) and TVs (13%). More modest price drops have been observed in apparel (12%), sporting goods (8%) and furniture (4%). Adobe expects all of these categories to see deeper online discounts during Cyber Week.  
• Orders completed using the buy now, pay later (BNPL) payment method have grown 13% YoY so far during the 2022 holiday season. 

“We are beginning to see the impact of earlier holiday deals, as retailers contend with oversupply and a softening spending environment,” said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital Insights. “E-commerce has remained resilient thus far per Adobe Analytics, a strong start to the season as we look towards Cyber Monday, which is expected to set new records for online shopping.”

Adobe’s analysis covers the period from Nov. 1-21, 2022. Findings are based on Adobe Analytics data and provide a comprehensive view into U.S. e-commerce by analyzing commerce transactions online. The analysis covers over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories.