In 2026, retail supply chains are being rebuilt for resilience
Retail has been in a state of constant flux since the dawn of online shopping at the turn of the century.
But the last five years, pandemic shutdowns, port congestion, geopolitical tension and tariff volatility have escalated the alteration of the operating environment. What began as temporary crisis management has evolved into a structural shift in how retailers design and operate their networks.
[READ MORE: Trump issues reciprocal tariffs]
That is why the coming year will be defined more by resilience than simple cost efficiency or speed. As a result, I’m keeping my eye on the following trends – and retailers should, too.
For decades, retail supply chains were engineered to minimize cost through just-in-time production and concentrated sourcing. But with Section 301, tariffs still in effect, and renewed trade policy uncertainty ahead of the 2026 election cycle, that model is now evolving.
According to the 2025 Capgemini Research Institute survey, 56% of executives are planning on nearshoring or combined reshoring and nearshoring strategies this year. While diversification requires time and investment, many retailers view it as foundational to long-term stability.
These shifts are not temporary adjustments. For organizations operating on tight buying calendars and trend-sensitive assortments, greater regional balance can improve responsiveness and reduce exposure to disruption.
In this environment, supply chain strategy is expanding beyond cost control to focus on revenue protection and operational agility, positioning retailers to compete more confidently in an unpredictable global landscape.
When both inbound flow and consumer demand can shift in weeks, static quarterly forecasts struggle to hold. Consider the current impact of tariff uncertainty on global imports, which were down 6.6% year over year in 2025, and projected to fall another 2% in the first half of 2026. Demand shocks are also becoming the new normal. No long-term planning model can stand up to a TikTok dessert trend causing a global pistachio shortage and price hike within weeks.
If retailers can no longer rely on seasonal buying calendars and plan-and-execute models, what’s next? We’re already seeing a move toward sense-and-respond systems built for resilience. Continuous monitoring of sell-through, fill rates and inbound inventory is replacing periodic reviews, and trading partners are coordinating more frequently to prevent small disruptions from cascading into stockouts or excess inventory.
In this environment, resilience depends on detecting change early and adjusting before margin is impacted, so AI-driven coordination is the new norm.
Shared visibility as a competitive filter
In the past, supplier relationships have been governed primarily by contracts, scorecards and service-level agreements. But as planning cycles compress and volatility accelerates, those mechanisms are also shifting. Retailers increasingly expect suppliers to demonstrate real-time awareness of fill rates, inventory positions and sell-through performance as conditions evolve in real time.
Visibility is no longer a back-office reporting function; it’s a competitive filter. The suppliers that can rise to the occasion with the right tools will strengthen their position, while those operating in periodic reporting cycles risk falling behind. Resilience is now embedded in the quality of the data shared across the retail ecosystem.
What this means for retail leaders
Leaders can’t control tariff policy, weather patterns or viral demand spikes, but they can modernize how their organizations respond. That starts with investing in AI-driven orchestration tools, automated order ingestion and tighter system integration with trading partners.
The retailers that thrive in this environment won’t be those that predict supply and demand perfectly. Instead, the winners will be those who build resilience into their operating model. Retail has always operated in some amount of flux, but in a world where policy, supply and consumer demand can shift overnight, the retailers positioned to win are those designed to keep up.
Mike Svatek is chief product officer, SPS Commerce.
