Visa: Inflation-adjusted holiday sales to rise 1.1%
Holiday spending is expected to inch up this year as consumers remain “resilient” amid a continued focus on value, according to new holiday data from Visa.
U.S. holiday retail sales are expected to rise 4.5% year over year in November and December, marking the strongest holiday sales growth since 2021, according to Visa Business and Economic Insights. Adjusted for inflation, however, sales are expected to rise just 1.1% this year. Prices for holiday-related goods are exoected to rise approximately 3.4%.
The report also found that consumers plan to spend an average of $777 on holiday gifts this year, up from $736 in 2025, an increase of 5.6%. However, roughly one-third of consumers earning less than $100,000 say they plan to switch to lower-cost brands or stores for holiday gifts compared with last year.
Consumers may be dreaming about travel and experiences, but they are prioritizing physical gifts. More than half of those surveyed by Visa put travel and live events at the top of their holiday wish lists. But just 15% say they are prioritizing spending on experiences, compared with 27% prioritizing physical gifts.
VIsa's analysis of anonymized Visa credit card transactions found that households earning more than $200,000 were the only income group to increase both holiday airfare bookings and spending in September, with trips booked up 29% and spending up 38% from a year earlier. In contrast, lower-income groups pulled back sharply on airfare booking and spending.
[READ MORE: Survey: Early December could overtake Black Friday for peak holiday shopping]
“Consumers are heading into the holidays with the capacity and willingness to spend, even if they’re being thoughtful about where those dollars go,” said Michael Brown, principal U.S. economist at Visa. “Income growth continues to provide an important foundation for spending, and while higher prices remain part of the picture, we expect another healthy holiday season.”
"Consumers are still spending, but they’re making deliberate choices about where their holiday dollars go,” Brown added. “That combination of healthy spending and continued focus on value is likely to define this holiday season.”
