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Study: Five predictions bode well for a promising Prime Day

Prime Day may produce benefits for retailers beyond Amazon — and not just online.

That’s according to an analysis from Adobe Digital Insights, which conducted an analysis of aggregate and anonymous data via Adobe Experience Cloud, Adobe Analytics Cloud, Adobe Commerce Cloud, and Adobe Advertising Cloud to produce five predictions about what will happen during Prime Day 2019, July 15-16.

Here are the predictions.

1. Retailers Will See Their Best Prime Day Yet
Adobe analysis indicates online retailers are seeing an increasingly strong “halo effect” on Prime Day. Revenue lift for the top retailers during Prime Day 2018 was close to 60%, and ADI predicts this year’s lift will be even higher, at 79%.

Additionally, ADI predicts Prime Day will be the third day ever outside of the holiday season to surpass $2 billion in e-commerce spending, following Labor Day 2018 and Memorial Day 2019. ADI attributes much of this sales growth to improved conversion performance. Retailers saw a 54% lift in conversion during Prime Day 2018, according to ADI data, and that number is expected to increase for 2019. Seventy percent of the 54% lift last year was directly tied to conversion, while 25% of that lift was due to an increase in visits, and the remaining 5% of the lift was caused by the increase in basket size.

2. Physical locations will give an edge on Prime Day
According to ADI analysis, consumers usually use buy-online-pickup-in-store (BOPIS) for less expensive items, which results in a smaller average order value. However, Prime Day brings BOPIS order values up closer to the online average of $146.

3. Email and video will be the key to a successful Prime Day
ADI data indicates Prime Day lift in 2018 had a direct correlation to email campaign success among the top retailers. Retailers with a poorly developed or completely undeveloped email channel, in comparison, saw zero lift on Prime Day. Overall, email campaigns were responsible for an 8.8% increase in order share on Prime Day 2018.

In addition, video advertising engagement heightens on Prime Day, with ADI research revealing click-through rates were up 55% and viewable completion rates up 20% during Prime Day 2018. Interestingly, this engagement lift is primarily driven through desktop.

4. Certain categories have the best discounts
The best deals on Prime Day can be found on electronics, apparel, and home goods, according to ADI data. Discounts on home goods and electronics were found to be on par with discounts found on Cyber Monday. And Prime
Day apparel and linen discounts actually outpace holiday discounts.

According to the analysis, consumers are most discount-sensitive toward toys and home/garden goods, and steeper discounts on appliances, personal care products, and groceries don’t necessarily indicate more purchases. Items in the $50 to $100 bucket see the strongest relationship between discount and units purchased.

5. Return rates increase for purchases made on Prime Day
Last year saw a 30% increase in returns for items purchased on Prime Day, according to ADI. Analysts from ADI advise that retailers consider leveraging emerging technologies, such as augmented and virtual reality, that aid consumers in choosing the right products online.
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