Sales grew in November; retailers on track for ‘successful’ holiday season
Moderate retail sales growth continued in November even as two of the holiday season’s busiest shopping days bumped over into December and weren’t included in the month’s totals.
Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were up 0.15% seasonally adjusted month-over-month and up 2.35% unadjusted year-over-year in November, according to the CNBC/Retail Monitor. That compared with increases of 0.74% month-over-month and 4.13% year-over-year in October.
Core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to automobiles dealers and gasoline stations) was down 0.19% month-over-month in November but up 1.43% year-over-year. That compared with increases of 0.83% month-over-month and 4.59% year-over-year in October.
Total sales were up 2.15% year-over-year for the first 11 months of 2024 and core sales were up 2.33%. The numbers come as NRF is forecasting that retail sales during the November-December holiday season will grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.
“November sales increased on top of a strong October and would have been even higher if Thanksgiving Sunday and Cyber Monday hadn’t fallen in December,” said NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Year-over-year gains were solid even as retail prices in many categories are lower this year, showing that consumers are buying more merchandise as the economy continues to grow. “
NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said that, based on data seen so far, conditions are shaping up for a "successful" holiday retail season. He noted that U.S. economic growth remained strong in the third quarter, with gross domestic product expanding more than many estimates of the economy’s long-run potential capacity.
“Personal consumption continues to provide the horsepower behind the economy, as it has throughout this expansion,” Kleinhenz added.
Kleinhenz’s comments came in the December edition of NRF’s Monthly Economic Review, which said NRF stands by its forecast that retail sales during the November-December holiday season will grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023. A near-record 197-million people shopped during the holiday weekend from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, and 58% of holiday shoppers had started in early November.
November Sales
November sales rose in two categories — online and grocery/beverage stores — on a monthly basis and were up in five out of nine retail categories on a yearly basis, led by online sales, grocery and beverage stores and clothing and accessories stores.
Specifics from key sectors are below.
•Online and other non-store sales were up 1.32% month-over-month and up 21.48% year-over-year.
•Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.95% month-over-month and up 5.31% year-over-year.
•Clothing and accessories stores were down 0.18% month-over-month but up 4.21% year-over-year.
•General merchandise stores were down 0.05% month-over-month but up 2.01% year-over-year.
•Health and personal care stores were down 0.16% month-over-month but up 1.64% year-over-year.
•Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 0.8% month-over-month and down 1.15% year-over-year.
•Building and garden supply stores were down 2.19% month-over-month and down 2.93% year-over-year.
•Electronics and appliance stores were down 2.19% month-over-month and down 7.28% year-over-year.
•Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were down 1.2% month-over-month and down 7.39% year-over-year.
Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.
