Retail seasonal hiring to fall to lowest level since 2009
Retailers may be doing more than less this holiday when it comes to staffing stores and other facilities for the seasonal rush.
Seasonal hiring announcements by retailers remain muted as the industry gears up for the holidays, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas’ “2025 Seasonal Hiring Report." Following a summer of subdued hiring, Challenger expects seasonal retail hiring in 2025 to fall to its lowest point since the recession-hit season of 2009. The firm projects retailers may add under 500,000 positions in the last three months of 2025, marking the smallest seasonal gain in 16 years.
“Seasonal employers are facing a confluence of factors this year: tariffs loom, inflationary pressures linger, and many companies continue to rely on automation and permanent staff instead of large waves of seasonal hires,” said Andy Challenger, workplace expert and senior VP of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
Kohl’s announced that it was hiring seasonal workers, but did not give a number. In announcing its holiday plans, Target did not say how many seasonal associates it plans to hire this year, but gave a link to a site where candidates could apply. It also noted it is entering the season with a “strong, experienced team,” and that it’s also using the “On-Demand” team in its stores.
While there could be a late hiring push if holiday sales surprise to the upside, the cautious pace of announcements so far suggests that companies are not betting on a big seasonal surge, according to Andy Challenger.
“This year may be more about doing more with less,” he added.
Transportation & Warehousing
Similarly, seasonal hiring in transportation and warehousing is expected to underperform. Last year, employers in this sector added 303,700 positions in the fourth quarter, down 2% from 2023, and the lowest fourth quarter total since 2019. Challenger forecasts a further decline in 2025, as e-commerce firms and logistics providers continue to lean on automation, flexible scheduling, and year-round staff to meet fluctuating demand.
“Companies have been steadily restructuring their workforces this year, with a sharper focus on efficiency and technology,” said Andy Challenger. “The traditional seasonal spike in warehousing and shipping jobs is no longer as pronounced, and that shift could be permanent.”
BLS
Preliminary figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that retail currently employs 15,550,700, the highest number of workers since 2018, when 15,713,500 workers were employed. The figure tends to dip in September as teens and college-aged workers go back to school, and picks up again in the final quarter of the year.
“A wave of uncertainty is impacting not just retailers, but also consumers heading into the final quarter of the year,” said Andy Challenger. “With hiring slowing across the board, retailers may hire fewer workers themselves, while many of their shoppers slow spending.”
