Post-COVID-19 restaurant comeback varies by state

Restaurant visits are up overall as local COVID-19 restrictions are being lifted, but the nationwide average doesn’t tell the whole story.

Over the last few weeks, nationwide restaurant visitation levels have climbed back to 85% of 2019 levels. However, location data platform Unacast examined human mobility patterns in five states from different parts of the country and with different approaches to shutdown and reopening to see how current visitation levels to restaurants differ across America, state-by-state.

Nearly all states have seen some growth in restaurant visitation since the week of June 1, but Unacast data shows that individual state visitation levels vary greatly and for many different reasons. In South Dakota, where formal stay-at-home orders were never in place, restaurant visitation levels are currently sitting at 17% above 2019 rates. 

In general, restaurant visits are also rebounding in Southeastern states. For example, South Carolina and Tennessee, which were among the first states to issue shutdown orders and also to start reopening, are among the national leaders in the restaurant visitation recovery rate. 

According to Unacast, South Carolina, where restaurant visitation was down more than 70% in the second week of April 2020, the market has rebounded to within 5% of 2019 levels in the last 50 days. Tennessee restaurant visitation has come back to within 10% of previous levels in the same timeframe. 

In a similar vein but from a different part of the country, having just entered its reopening phase in mid-May, Texas restaurant visitation levels have rebounded to within 20% of 2019 rates since late May.

However, Southeastern state Florida, which has seen a recent spike in beach visits, has not experienced a similar recovery in the restaurant sector. Unacast data indicates Florida restaurant visitation levels are still down 30% compared to 2019. That’s compared to a 20% consumer mobility reduction in the state overall. So while consumers in Florida are moving around more, they aren’t going back to restaurants as much as they did pre-COVID-19. 

Unacast also examined restaurant visitation rates in California, which declared both a stay-at-home order and a shutdown order on March 20, nearly two weeks before several other states. The reopening plan began on May 8, with public space such as beaches among the first to reopen. Yet at the end of May, restaurant visitation levels were down 46% versus 2019 levels. That’s compared to an overall reduction of human mobility in California of just 19% in the same period.

The implication is that while human mobility in public spaces is returning to normal in California, consumers there don’t yet feel comfortable going to enclosed restaurants. Unacast says it remains to be seen if this is a long-term trend.

Unacast also contrasted state restaurant visitation rates with overall human mobility levels. In South Dakota, where a shutdown never really happened, overall human mobility levels are back to within 4% of 2019 rates. This means on average, people are traveling about 96% of the same distance they used to in order to visit locations outside the home. 

In California, which shut down early, mobility is only back to within 19% of normal levels. Florida, which also shut down early, is back to within 20%. Both states are much larger, more densely populated, and more reliant on tourism and travel to fuel their restaurant industry than South Dakota. So, in each case, Unacast advises the lower relative rate of mobility is a factor in total visitation recovery.