Peak season for supply chain is already here: Five moves retailers should make now

For consumers, peak retail season is still months away. For supply chains, it has already begun.

Retailers are accelerating purchases of apparel, electronics and holiday merchandise to get ahead of rising costs and ongoing uncertainty caused by tariffs, shifting trading policies and geopolitical conflict.

July container volumes are projected to reach a record 2.47 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) as U.S. importers bring goods into the country earlier than usual to reduce tariff exposure. Volumes are expected to ease in August and September as inventory that would traditionally arrive later in the year has already landed.

Front-loading inventory may reduce one source of risk, but it creates several others. Ports must absorb higher volumes. Trucking and rail networks must move freight inland. Distribution centers must accommodate inventory months before demand materializes.  And retailers must decide where products should sit long before Black Friday, despite continued uncertainty around tariffs, transportation costs and consumer demand.

In an environment where plans can change overnight, competitive advantage increasingly comes from AI-powered execution — the ability to sense change, evaluate options and coordinate action across the supply chain in real time.

Here are five priorities retailers should focus on now.

1. Look beyond the purchase price

Tariffs have made landed costs both higher and less predictable. Retailers need to evaluate duties alongside freight, fuel, storage, handling costs and the financial impact of delays.

Compliance has also become a much bigger part of the equation. Incorrect tariff classifications, incomplete country-of-origin documentation or missing sourcing records can delay shipments at customs and expose importers to significant penalties. 

As a result, the lowest freight rate is not always the best option. A cheaper shipment may ultimately cost more if it increases the risk of delays, compliance issues or disruption. In many cases, greater reliability, stronger traceability and better documentation justify a higher transportation cost.

The focus should be on understanding the cost, risk and resilience of the entire product journey, not simply the price of putting goods on a vessel.

2. Prepare for inventory to arrive before demand

Bringing products into the country early may reduce tariff exposure, but it also means inventory could remain in the network for longer.

That increases carrying costs, ties up working capital and consumes warehouse capacity that may later be needed for faster-moving products. It also increases the likelihood that inventory ends up in the wrong location if demand shifts during the season.

Retailers therefore need a real-time view of inventory across distribution centers, stores and in-transit shipments, together with the ability to reposition stock quickly as conditions change. That may involve transferring inventory between facilities, fulfilling online orders from stores or reallocating stock before regional shortages develop.

Importing products early is only part of the challenge. Ensuring they're in the right place when customers want them protects sales and margins.

3. Preserve transportation flexibility

The import surge does not end when containers reach U.S. ports. Retailers must secure the drayage, rail and trucking capacity needed to move inventory through their networks while remaining prepared for unexpected changes in demand.

Where lead times allow, intermodal transportation may offer a more cost-effective and sustainable alternative to truckload. At the same time, retailers should identify the products and scenarios that justify expedited shipping. Air freight can quickly replenish fast-selling items, but premium transportation costs can quickly erode profitability.

Now is the time to model different scenarios. Which products justify expedited transport? Which can tolerate longer lead times? Where can shipments be consolidated? Which alternative carriers, modes and routes are available if disruption occurs?

Rather than relying on a single transportation strategy, retailers need the flexibility to adapt as capacity, costs and customer demand evolve.

4. Plan for the forecast to be wrong

Forecasting remains essential, but no model can anticipate every viral trend, successful promotion or sudden shift in consumer confidence.

The retailers best prepared for peak season are not those that assume their forecast is correct. They are the ones that can detect change quickly and respond before small problems become expensive ones.

If demand exceeds expectations, can inventory be redirected from another region? Can fulfillment shift to a different distribution center or store? Is expedited replenishment commercially viable? If sales disappoint, can promotions, allocation rules or fulfillment strategies be adjusted quickly without unnecessarily sacrificing margin?

Competitive advantage increasingly comes from execution: how rapidly retailers can sense change, evaluate options and act with confidence.

5. Connect decisions across the fulfillment journey

Peak readiness is often viewed as a warehouse challenge. In reality, every customer order depends on coordinated decisions across inventory, order management, warehousing and transportation.

A distribution center may operate efficiently while the wider fulfillment network underperforms. Inventory may sit in the wrong location. Orders may be routed to facilities with insufficient labor or capacity. Faster delivery promises may require transportation choices that eliminate profitability.

Intelligent supply chain execution connects these decisions rather than optimizing each function independently. It allows retailers to evaluate inventory availability, warehouse capacity, transportation costs, delivery commitments and profitability together, allowing the network to respond as one.

AI is making this coordination even more powerful. Rather than simply providing dashboards, AI can analyze vast volumes of operational data, identify emerging bottlenecks, compare fulfillment scenarios, prioritize inventory movements and recommend transportation decisions in real time. It can also help automate trade documentation, validate compliance information and surface potential issues before they delay shipments.

The goal is not to replace human decision-making, but to augment it, giving supply chain teams the intelligence they need to move faster and make better decisions under pressure.

This year's early import surge may buy retailers time, but it does not eliminate uncertainty. The businesses that perform best this peak season will not necessarily be those that imported the most inventory or produced the most accurate forecast. They will be the ones with connected, AI-enabled execution capabilities that allow them to continuously rebalance inventory, optimize fulfillment and adjust transportation strategies as market conditions evolve.

Peak season has already begun. The retailers that use the coming weeks to strengthen execution, not simply build inventory, will be best positioned to deliver for customers while protecting margins.