Online grocery sales hit record-setting $10.5 billion in October
Online grocery sales in the U.S. saw a massive year-over-year jump in October.
According to the Brick Meets Click/Mercatus Grocery Shopper Survey for October, the U.S. online grocery market ended October with $10.5 billion in monthly sales, a 27.9% increase over last year as all three receiving methods posted solid year-over-year growth. October’s total monthly sales set a record high and marked the second straight month in which year-over-year online grocery sales gains exceeded 20%.
Delivery sales increased a whopping 46% year-over-year in October to $4.8 billion, a record-setting high for the segment. The monthly active user (MAU) base for delivery expanded much faster than for either pickup or ship-to-home, growing 16% compared to 2023, with most of the gains coming from households between the ages of 30 and 60. Combined with increased order frequency, delivery’s order volume increased 24% versus October 2023 and widened delivery’s order share lead over pickup for the second consecutive year in large metropolitan areas, which represent roughly 60% of U.S. households. In addition, delivery’s average order value (AOV) climbed by over 15%.
[READ MORE: Online grocery sales top $27 billion in Q3]
Pickup had a strong October as well, finishing at $4.2 billion, up nearly 20% versus last year, even without the same level of promotional support. The number of pickup orders completed during October increased 6%, with most of the volume growth being driven by higher order frequency as opposed to household penetration. Pickup’s MAU base expanded by less than 1% as a contraction in the 45-60 age group compared to last year offset growth in other age groups. Pickup’s AOV increased by almost 13%, led by the mass sector and favorable shifts in order frequency, similar to delivery.
Ship-to-home sales totaled $1.5 billion for October, up 6% versus 2023, with gains aided by a larger customer base and higher AOVs. The ship-to-home MAU base grew just under 3% during the month, driven by strong demand growth in the youngest (18-29 years old) and oldest (60+ years old) households while its reach into the two middle age groups fell versus last year. Order volume declined 5% as MAUs completed fewer orders during October versus last year. Ship-to-home’s AOV increased nearly 12%, which Brick Meets Click says was helped by strong results from Amazon’s pure-play segments, the largest sales contributor of the method, which posted a nearly 16% increase versus 2023.
The overall MAU base for online grocery grew by 1.6% year-over-year as 54% of U.S. households completed at least one online grocery order during the month via delivery, pickup or ship-to-home. At the same time, the total pool of households that has ever shopped online for groceries expanded by just 0.6% in October, representing nearly 79% of U.S. households. Brick Meets Click says the gap in expansion rates reveals that most of the MAU growth in October was the result of reactivating light or lapsed users.
“Delivery is riding its next growth curve, fueled not simply by subscriptions or membership offers, but by promotional pitches that incentivize the customer to commit for a year,” said David Bishop, partner at Brick Meets Click. “While firms occasionally revert to their standard ‘free trial’ offers, the surge of new discount tactics seem to have a broader appeal that extends beyond the existing customers of the retailer or provider offering it.”
Brick Meets Click says the growth in delivery, connected with subscriptions and memberships, may create headwinds for retailers without a competitive offer due to the increase in cross-shopping behaviors. The share of households that ordered online from a grocery format in October and that also received an online grocery order from mass during the month rose over five percentage points versus last year to 40% in 2024.
Additional headwinds for grocery, which includes supermarket and hard discount, stem from a growing gap in the repeat intent rate with mass which has doubled compared to a year ago. In October, the repeat intent score gap between grocery and mass was nearly 20 points higher for both pickup and delivery services versus last year. The gap for delivery services has held steady, but the gap for pickup services has grown significantly as the mass lead was only in the mid-single digits last year.
"As national giants like Walmart accelerate growth with aggressive membership offers, there are effective ways for regional grocers to adapt and better connect with their core customers," said Mark Fairhurst, chief growth officer at Mercatus. "By improving loyalty programs and enhancing the relevance of digital initiatives to leverage targeted and personalized campaigns that integrate online and offline promotions, regional grocers can seize new opportunities to strengthen their position in a competitive market."
Brick Meets Click conducted the most recent survey on Oct. 30-31, 2024, with 1,847 adults, 18 years and older, who participated in the household’s grocery shopping, and a similar survey in October 2023. Results are adjusted based on internet usage among U.S. adults to account for the non-response bias associated with online surveys. Responses are geographically representative of the U.S. and weighted by age to reflect the national population of adults, 18 years and older, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
