Numerator: Costco gains $2.5B in CPG wallet share; new members fuel growth
Costco is continuing to expand both its customer and store base.
The membership warehouse club retailer added an estimated 4.5 million households over the past year, and gained roughly $2.5 billion in CPG spending share of wallet among its shoppers, according to new data from Numerator. The increase was part of a broader industry shift away from traditional grocery store chains such as Kroger and Albertsons.
Over $1 billion in the new Costco spending was taken from Walmart, Kroger and Albertsons banners. Another $570 million came from independent retailers across grocery, gas and convenience.
A majority of the new households skewed Gen Z and lower income. However, the latter group made 1.8 million fewer trips and reduced their basket spending compared to last year, according to Numerator, limiting topline growth.
Costco’s e-commerce operations continue to be a key pillar of its success. Nearly 2.5 million more consumers made a purchase on Costco.com over the past year, sourcing $300 million from competitive retailers, according to Numerator. Basket spend on the site grew by 7%, moving the online average to be $108, which beats the average in-store basket.
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Kirkland private label sales increased 3.1% year over year. However, branded items still outpaced, growing sales three-times faster.
“Numerator data shows Costco gained roughly $2.5 billion in share of wallet among its shoppers, part of a broader shift toward Costco, Walmart and Amazon and away from traditional grocery store chains like Kroger and Albertsons,” noted Numerator. “However, Costco faces headwinds as its private label, Kirkland, loses momentum and lower-income shoppers cut trips and spending.”
Costco is expanding its network of stores amid its financial success. The retailer plans to open 33 warehouses in its current year (fiscal 2027), including five relocations, with a goal of opening 30 net new warehouses annually during the next five to 10 years. It expects capital spending of about $7.5 billion.
Costco operates approximately 940 warehouses worldwide, including 647 in the United States and Puerto Rico.
Methodology
Purchase data is for the past 12 months ending Aug. 30, and is based on Numerator’s Total Commerce Panel, which tracks longitudinal purchase behavior from 200,000 U.S. households across more than 50,000 retailers. Low-income is defined as household income below $40,000.
