Import volume expected to remain high in October despite short strike
Despite a three-day dockworkers strike at the nation’s East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, import cargo is expected to remain strong in October.
According to the latest Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, October's import cargo volume is forecast at 2.12 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), up 3.1% year-over-year. That is slightly higher than the 2.08 million TEU forecast for October a month ago.
The October projection comes following a brief strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) after a failure to reach a new contract with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX). The two groups have extended their existing contract through Jan. 15 to provide time to negotiate a new contract and keep the ports open through the holiday season.
[READ MORE: East, Gulf Coast port strike suspended after tentative contract agreement]
“It was a huge relief for retailers, their customers and the nation’s economy that the strike was short lived,” said NRF VP for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold. “It will take the affected ports a couple of weeks to recover, but we can rest assured that all ports across the country will be working hard to meet demand, and no impact on the holiday shopping season is expected. The strike wasn’t without impacts – retailers who brought in cargo early or shifted delivery to the West Coast face added warehousing and transportation costs. But the priority now is for both parties to negotiate in good faith and reach a long-term contract before the short-term extension ends in mid-January. We don’t want to face a disruption like this all over again.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.34 million TEU in August, although the Ports of New York/New Jersey and Miami have yet to report final data. That was up 0.9% from July and up 19.3% year-over-year for the highest volume since the record of 2.4 million TEU set in May 2022.
Ports have not yet reported September’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.29 million TEU, up 12.9% year-over-year. Looking ahead, November is forecast at 1.91 million TEU, up 0.9% year-over-year, and December at 1.88 million TEU, up 0.2%.
“The surge in imports over the past few months has clearly been the result of contingency imports by wholesalers, retailers and industrial companies in anticipation of the East and Gulf Coast port strike rather than a sudden increase in demand,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “We may see some short-term congestion on the West Coast but nothing significant, and East Coast delays should be limited.”
If the Global Port Tracker’s projections are accurate, the totals would bring 2024 to 24.9 million TEU, up 12.1% from 2023. January 2025 is forecast at 1.98 million TEU, up 0.8% year-over-year, and February 2025 is forecast at 1.74 million TEU, down 11.2% because of fluctuations in the timing of Lunar New Year shutdowns at Asian factories.
Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast; and Houston.