NRF: Consumers still spending despite inflation

Shoppers are still willing to buy in the face of cost increases and slowing wage increases.

According to the National Retail Federation (NRF) Monthly Economic Review for June 2024, gross domestic product is still expected to grow about 2.3% over 2023 but that employment is now expected to grow by an average 180,000 jobs a month, about 50,000 higher than expected during spring 2024. 

Core retail sales as defined by NRF – based on Census Bureau data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants – were up 3.8% unadjusted year-over-year for the first four months of the year. That is in line with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.

"U.S. economic growth for the remainder of this year will depend on several factors but particularly the pace of job growth, inflation and what actions will be taken by the Federal Reserve," said NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. "The good news is that the economy is growing, inflation is moderating, and overall fundamentals look fine as increased consumer spending supports underlying momentum."

Inflation as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index should drop to about 2.2% by the end of the year, close to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. Inflation was higher than expected in the first few months of the year, but much of it was driven by prices for services and the trend is expected to be short-lived, Kleinhenz said.

Immigration keeps inflation in check

Kleinhenz also said substantial gains in immigration have helped curb inflation driven by rising wages, particularly in low-paying jobs.

"The biggest change in the economic outlook since our initial projections is that immigration has been much stronger," Kleinhenz said, noting that the Congressional Budget Office now estimates that net immigration in 2023 was 3.3 million, more than triple the previous estimate of 1 million. "New immigrants have increased the supply of workers, raising production capacity, closing some shortages in the labor market and allowing the economy to generate jobs without overheating and accelerating inflation."

Overall year-over-year inflation stood at 2.7% in March, according to the PCE index. But the figure was driven by service-sector prices, which were up 4% while prices for goods were unchanged from a year earlier and have been gradually declining.

Kleinhenz had expected the Federal Reserve to begin to lower interest rates in July. But with inflation still not down as much as it would like, he doesn’t think a cut is likely to happen until later in the year.

"The Fed has reinforced its belief in being data-dependent and that means inflation needs to go down for several consecutive months before the central bank is going to cut rates," Kleinhenz said. "The Fed has managed to restrain the economy and bring down inflation, and a delay in easing should further cool the economy and keep our initial GDP growth projection intact. The broader trend of lower inflation has not shifted, and the mix of inflation rates should become more favorable, with slower price growth in the service sector and less deflation of prices for goods."