ShopperTrak predicts 1.6% total U.S. foot traffic decline for Q2

Chicago ShopperTrak Monday said it expects retail sales and traffic for the second quarter to remain relatively positive compared to the same period last year.

According to the company’s Retail Traffic Index, total U.S. foot traffic will decrease 1.6%, while the company’s National Retail Sales Estimate is forecasting a 2.4% retail sales rise for the three-month period.

ShopperTrak believes, depending on weather, retailers could see a slight uptick in mid April as spring breaks continue and consumers shop for spring and summer apparel in response to warmer weather. Early May should then yield the annual traffic and sales strength seen as shoppers gear up for Mother’s Day (May 9), followed by a bit of a spending lull until mid- to late-June when consumers begin shopping for Father’s Day and nearly all schools have closed for summer.

“There are a number of factors that go into the expected traffic decline in Q2, namely the retail calendar shift that pushes Easter strength into Q1 this year,” said Bill Martin, co-founder of ShopperTrak. “But with the recent news that consumers will most likely see higher gas prices over the next three months, we anticipate fewer shopping trips with a larger spend, explaining the tempered optimism in the small traffic decline expected.”

Martin continued: “That being said, we’re comparing to a period last year that was mired in the recession, so retailers need to be cautiously optimistic at this point.”