Kantar Retail makes holiday sales prediction

Retailers can expect a slight rise in holiday sales this year compared to last — fueled largely by the online channel.



That’s according to Kantar Retail, which released the industry’s first 2016 holiday sales forecast. It projects growth of 3.8% for the fourth quarter, a slight increase over the 3.4% growth in the year-ago period.



Kantar Retail expects the majority of the growth this year will be driven by online sales, which it says will increase nearly 16%. Brick-and-mortar growth will be a modest 2.0%, the same as the channel logged last year, according to Kantar.



“Lower prices and job growth will stimulate more holiday shopping activity this year,” said Doug Hermanson, principal economist with Kantar Retail. “On the other hand, falling prices will create a tough environment for topline retail sales growth. And while expectations of stronger than average e-commerce growth this holiday won’t surprise many, the distance at which e-commerce will lead brick-and-mortar growth will be much wider than recent years.”