Examining Long-Term Trends
The commonly reported monthly comparable-store-sales change provides an interesting snap-shot of one month’s performance. The longer-range trend provides a truer insight into what is actually happening with an individual retailer or in an entire channel. The following analysis highlights retailers that have established consistently improving or declining long-term comparable-store-sales trends.
Observation
After reviewing the releases and the results for February, I think the less said about the month the better. When you take the least important month of the retail year (no reason for the consumer to buy) and combine it with extreme weather shifts (the lowest temperatures nationally in 18 years and 60% more snowfall than a year ago) it makes little sense to attempt to interpret the trend. With the shift in the timing of Easter, March will provide an excellent opportunity to assess the strength and stability of long-term trends.
Quarterly Reporters With a Declining Nine-Month Trend| Retailer | Last Reported Quarter | Last Six Months | Last Nine Months |
| Bombay Co. | –15.5% | –9.2% | –6.6% |
| Lowe’s | –5.3% | –4.7% | –1.8% |
| Mens Wearhouse | –1.5% | 0.7% | 1.6% |
| QVC | 7.0% | 9.1% | 9.4% |
| Safeway | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% |
| Staples | 1.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% |
| Talbots Inc. | –1.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| Whole Foods Market | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% |
| Retailer | February 2006 | February 2007 | Previous 90 Days | Previous Six Months |
| BJs | 1.6% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Claire’s | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Hot Topic | –8.4% | –2.7% | –5.2% | –5.9% |
| Jos. A. Bank Clothiers | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% |
| Longs Drug Store | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% |
| Saks, Inc. | –6.7% | 24.7% | 9.9% | 9.4% |
| Sam’s Clubs | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.6% |
| Target | 3.6% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% |
| Zumiez | 28.0% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 11.4% |
| Retailer | February 2006 | February 2007 | Previous 90 Days | Previous Six Months |
| Abercrombie & Fitch | 5.0% | –6.0% | –2.5% | 0.6% |
| Chico’s | 5.7% | –4.3% | –1.9% | –1.6% |
| CVS | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.9% |
| Dillard’s | –2.0% | –9.0% | –4.1% | –3.1% |
| Dress Barn | 5.0% | 0.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% |
| Family Dollar | 4.4% | –0.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% |
| Gymboree | 19.0% | 1.0% | 8.0% | 11.5% |
| Limited Brands | 5.0% | 3.0% | 7.4% | 8.4% |
| Penney | 2.3% | –0.2% | 2.2% | 3.4% |
| Rite-Aid | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% |
| Ross Stores | 6.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 3.1% |
| Stage Stores | -0.9% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% |
| TJX | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% |
| Walgreens | 5.7% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.7% |
| Retailer | Last Reported Quarter | Last Six Months | Last Nine Months |
| Amazon | 34.0% | 30.3% | 28.1% |
| J.Crew | 19.0% | 17.5% | 15.8% |
| Payless ShoeSource | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.6% |
Visit www.chainstoreage.com for a full listing of monthly sales performance, and click on Monthly Sales under the “Industry Data” headline, on the left column.