Cupid’s aim off this year

Surveys that attempt to gauge consumer’s spending intentions are always suspect for the simple fact what people say and what they do are often very different things. That said, there are a couple surveys out this week that raise concerns that retailers won’t be feeling the love this year.

For starters, The National Retail Federation surveyed consumers in early January and found that the percentage of people who plan to celebrate Valentine’s Day has declined to 59.6% compared with just a few years ago when 63.4% of those surveyed intended to observe the holiday. Apparently, couples are being more pragmatic with spending on significant others expected to decline to $63.34 compared with $67.22 last year. The overall total this year versus last year is expected to hold up reasonably well, however with the average person spending approximately $103, compared to $102.50 last year, for a total of $14.1 billion.

The challenge for retailers this year is the fact that Valentine’s Day falls on a Sunday and that, according to researchers IBISWorld, means more people than normal will be dining out. The firm forecasts spending will increase 3.3% to $17.6 billion from $17 billion last year. Most of the growth will benefit the food service industry as the group forecasts declining sales for candy, jewelry and flowers.

“Because Valentine’s Day lands on a Sunday, restaurants are likely to gain traffic throughout the entire weekend,” said Toon van Beeck, a senior analyst with IBISWorld. “Furthermore, because President’s Day is on the following Monday, many consumers will be able to travel over the three-day weekend, further boosting restaurant sales.”

That’s not a good situation for retailers because, a large portion of Valentine’s Day spending is discretionary and every dollar spent in restaurant is one less available for goods sold at retail.