And the best positioned retailer for BTS is …

Target and Macy’s get the nod from Citigroup retail analyst Deb Weinswig as top picks to fare well this back-to-school season. In contrast to last week’s NRF survey, which forecasts a slight decline in spending, Weinswig is of the opinion that this year broadline and drug retailers will have their strongest seasonal performance since 2006 thanks to new fashion trends, a favorable weather outlook, inflation and high-end consumer demand.

“We are forecasting a +4.5% to 5.5% same-store sales increase for back-to-school (Aug. and Sep.) for our coverage universe, up from 3.2% last year and above the 10-year average of +4.1%,” according to Weinswig.