U.S. consumer sentiment fell to its lowest reading in about five months in May.
The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped to 69.1 in May from 77.2 in April. The reading, however, was slightly higher than the preliminary estimate of 67.4.
Sentiment also remains almost 20% above a year ago and about 40% above the all-time historic low in June 2022, “reflecting how much consumer views have improved as inflation eased,” noted Joanne Hsu, director, surveys of consumers, University of Michigan.
Consumers’ views of current economic conditions also fell in May, down to 69.6 in May from 79 in April. The outlook for the next six months fell to 68.8 from 76 in April.
“Consumers expressed particular concern over labor markets,” stated Hsu. “They expect unemployment rates to rise and income growth to slow.”
The prospect of continued high interest rates also weighed down consumer views, she added.
“These deteriorating expectations suggest that multiple factors pose downside risk for consumer spending,” she said. Still, sentiment remains almost 20% above a year ago and about 40% above the all-time historic low in June 2022, reflecting how much consumer views have improved as inflation eased.
Year-ahead inflation expectations edged up from 3.2% last month to 3.3% this month, remaining above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations held steady at 3.0% for the second straight month.
Although they have been within the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for 30 of the last 34 months, long-run inflation expectations remain elevated relative to the 2.2-2.6% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic.