Looking Ahead: The new Black Friday, Cyber Monday playbook

The retailers that dominated the 2024 holiday season are taking a beat to reset, but it won’t be long before they dive into the data to understand the trends that took hold and the opportunities they missed.

These brands don’t accept the status quo, and they certainly don’t subscribe to industry norms for what’s expected on Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM). Here are the bets they placed in 2024 that paid off and the promotions they’re planning now for next year.

Unpacking the $13.3 billion bag

Adobe reported that Cyber Monday sales hit a record $13.3 billion in 2024, and Mastercard noted a 14.6% year-over-year increase in e-commerce sales on Black Friday versus a meek 0.7% growth in in-store sales. These figures reflect a broader trend: the continued dominance of online shopping as the preferred channel for consumers.

This growth wasn’t just a continuation of pandemic-era trends. It indicates a permanent shift in shopping behavior, where e-commerce provides scalability, convenience and economic advantages that physical stores often struggle to match. While the pandemic may have catapulted e-commerce several years ahead of its natural progression, 2024 cemented its position as the cornerstone of holiday shopping.

Pacing promotions to spike sales

One of the most significant shifts in 2024 was the timing of consumer activity. According to customer data from Fast Simon, traffic surges to e-commerce sites occurred two to four weeks earlier in 2024 than in previous years, as retailers pushed to stagger sales outside the BFCM weekend. This strategy stemmed from a need to escape the clutter of traditional sales days, a lesson learned from 2023 when it became increasingly difficult to stand out amid the buying frenzy.

Even retail giants like Amazon adjusted their strategies, signaling smaller merchants to follow suit. By extending sales into early November and even late October, brands captured shoppers' attention without competing directly with the barrage of BFCM discounts. The results were staggering: E-commerce traffic spiked as high as 38 times the normal amount during these early sales periods, highlighting the effectiveness of these strategies.

Forecasting and adaptive merchandising

It’s not just early sales that prompted earlier purchases. Shoppers are increasingly aware that stock runs out quickly during peak seasons, and many are getting ahead of holiday shopping to ensure they get the items at the top of their wish lists. To meet this demand, many merchants used new methods to identify sales trends, including AI forecasting and online pre-orders.

Some merchants who weren’t prepared for the early surge in sales ran out of trending items before BFCM even started. With slow lead times, many couldn’t receive new shipments in time to maximize sales. But savvy merchants didn’t let this slow them down — they used it as an opportunity to promote other inventory on hand by using AI to suggest similar products to out-of-stock items.

Maintaining flexibility at scale

Holiday sales can account for up to 40% of a merchant’s annual revenue. With this amount of money on the line, the risk of a site crash or poor user experience can be catastrophic. Advances in AI and flexible infrastructure can help online retailers scale up and down to meet surges in demand around the holidays.

AI-powered personalization tools help retailers deliver tailored recommendations, guiding shoppers to relevant products even when popular items are out of stock. By offering alternative suggestions, retailers can prevent lost sales and enhance customer satisfaction.

Unlike physical stores, which are limited by space and inventory, online platforms can handle massive traffic and offer broader selections. Merchants that scaled in preparation for spikes in traffic and were adaptive when inventory didn’t meet demand were rewarded with higher sales and average order value in 2024.

E-commerce trends for Black Friday, Cyber Monday 2025

Retailers and consumers should challenge their assumptions about holiday shopping as they prepare for 2025. As stock runs out and shipping deadlines loom, the old habit of last-minute shopping is becoming increasingly risky. Merchants that plan ahead and leverage AI for forecasting and adaptive personalization will lap the pack.

For retailers, the message is clear: start now, leverage AI tools and stay flexible. The winners of BFCM 2025 are already laying their groundwork.