June retail sales up 4.9%; recovery remains uncertain amid COVID-19 resurgence
Retail sales rose for the second straight month in June as stores reopened, but experts cautioned COVID-19 outbreaks could again rein in spending.
Retail sales rose 4.9% in June over May, seeing both a monthly increase and their first year-over-year gain, according to the National Retail Federation. (The NRF numbers exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.) Two-thirds of retail categories saw month-over-month gains and just over half saw year-over-year increases. Many of the gains came at retailers that were closed during the pandemic – clothing store sales more than doubled – but some face the prospect of being ordered to close again as the virus returns in some areas around the country.
“June’s numbers show that retail spending is fueling the economic recovery,” NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “How durable the improvement in retail spending will be is directly related to how widespread the resurgence in COVID-19 cases becomes. All eyes are on the infections that are accelerating in many parts of the country and they pose a serious threat to recovery.”
The U.S. Census Bureau said that overall retail sales during June increased 7.5% seasonally adjusted from May and rose 1.1% year-over-year. That follows an 18.2% month-over-month increase in May and marks the first time government retail sales numbers have seen a year-over-year gain since February. Retail sales have been climbing back upward after a record 14.7% drop in April, the first full month that most stores were closed.
“The current economy is far from normal and will require a lengthy period to absorb job losses and build up to where it was before,” Kleinhenz said “Government aid for consumers and businesses has helped but additional relief is warranted to sustain the consumer spending that is the backbone of our economy.”
The biggest increase in June was at clothing and clothing accessory stores, where sales surged 105.1% in June, but were down 24.3% unadjusted year-over-year.
Specifics from other key retail sectors for June (versus May) include:
- Electronics and appliance stores were up 37.4%;
- Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 32.5%;
- Sporting goods stores were up 26.5%;
- Health and personal care stores were up 3.5%;
- General merchandise stores were up 2.7%;
- Building materials and garden supply stores were down 0.3%;
- Grocery and beverage stores were down 1.2%; and
- Online and other non-store sales were down 2.4%.