Imports heading for two-year low; retailers have holiday stock

Imports at the nation’s major container ports are expected to fall to their lowest level in nearly two years by the end of 2022.

That’s according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF)and Hackett Associates. Even though retail sales continue to grow, the report cited some advanced moves by retailers which are now paying off.

“Consumers are still buying, but the cargo surge we saw during the past two years appears to be slowing down,” said NRF VP for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold. “Cargo volumes are solidly above pre-pandemic levels, but the rate of growth has slowed and even slid into negative numbers compared with unusually high volumes last year.”

In September 2022, the monthly Global Port Tracker predicted that imports at the nation’s major container ports will fall below last year’s levels for the remainder of 2022.

“The growth in U.S. import volume has run out of steam, especially for cargo from Asia,” said Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett. “Recent cuts in carriers’ shipping capacity reflect falling demand for merchandise from well-stocked retailers even as consumers continue to spend. Meanwhile, the closure of factories during China’s October Golden Week holiday along with the Chinese government’s continuing ‘Zero Covid’ policy have impacted production, reducing demand for shipping capacity from that side of the Pacific as well.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.26 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) – one 20-foot container or its equivalent – in August, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up 3.5% from July but down 0.4% from August 2021.

Ports have not yet reported September’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.07 million TEU, down 3% year over year. October is forecast at 2 million TEU, down 9.4% year over year; November at 2.01 million TEU, down 4.9%, and December at 1.96 million TEU, down 6.1%. The December number would be the lowest since 1.87 million TEU in February 2021, which was the last time the monthly total fell below 2 million TEU.

The first half of the year totaled 13.5 million TEU, a 5.5% increase year over year. The forecast for the remainder of the year would bring the second half to 12.5 million TEU, down 4% year over year. For the full year, 2022 is expected to total 26 million TEU, up 0.7% from last year’s annual record of 25.8 million TEU.

Imports are expected to bounce back briefly in January 2023, which is forecast at 2.06 million TEU, but that would be down 4.9% from January 2022. February is forecast at 1.8 million TEU, down 15% year from last year as the month returns to its usual slowdown because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns each year in Asia. Numbers remained high despite the holiday last year because of backed-up cargo that kept congested ports busy during the month.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.