Import cargo remains elevated ahead of possible strike at U.S. ports
The nation’s major container ports are expected to see another busy month in September as concerns rise about a potential labor strike at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports.
That’s according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, which noted that the contract between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the United States Maritime Alliance covering East and Gulf Coast ports is set to expire on Sept. 30. The ILA has continued to threaten to strike if a new contract is not reached by then.
"The ILA most definitely will hit the streets on Oct. 1 if we don't get the kind of contract we deserve," ILA International president Harold Daggett said in a video message posted last week.
The contract covers six of 10 of the busiest U.S. container ports handling more than 13 million twenty-foot equivalent units annually.
“This is a critical time as retailers prepare for the all-important holiday season, and we need every port in the country working at full capacity,” said Jonathan Gold, VP for supply chain and customs policy, NRF. “Many retailers have brought cargo in early and shifted to alternate ports as a precaution, but it is vital that labor and management at the East Coast and Gulf Coast ports actually sit down at the negotiating table and bargain in good faith for a new contract so we can avoid a disruption of any kind when their contract expires."
NRF last week renewed its call for both sides to come to an agreement before the contract expires.
“A strike would be another blow to the supply chain as it continues to face challenges, and to the nation’s economy at a time when inflation is finally coming down and the Fed is poised to lower interest rates,” said Gold.
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said that some importers are weighing the decision to bring forward some goods, particularly from China, that could be impacted by rising tariffs following the election.
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.32 million twenty-foot equivalent units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in July, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up 8.1% from June and up 21% year-over-year for the highest July on record.
Ports have not yet reported August’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.37 million TEU, up 20.9% year-over-year and the highest level since the record of 2.4 million TEU set in May 2022.
September is forecast at 2.31 million TEU, up 14% year-over-year; October at 2.08 million TEU, up 1.3%; November at 1.92 million TEU, up 1.6%, and December at 1.89 million TEU, up 0.9%. That would bring 2024 to 24.98 million TEU, up 12.3% from 2023. The first half of 2024 totaled 12.1 million TEU, up 14.8% over the same period in 2023.
If the forecasts prove correct, 2024 will have seen a seven-month stretch of import levels at or above 2 million TEU, the longest since a 19-month stretch through September 2022. January 2025 is forecast at 1.96 million TEU, down 0.3% year-over-year.
The import numbers come as NRF is forecasting that 2024 retail sales — excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — will grow. Between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.
[READ MORE: NRF: Retail sales to reach at least $5.23 trillion in 2024]
Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast; and Houston.
