Import cargo levels likely to surge amid pause in tariff increases
It’s expected to be a busy summer at the country’s major container ports as retailers move to get goods in during the tariff pauses.
Import cargo at the nation’s major container ports is expected to see a surge through this summer as retailers take advantage of a 90-day reduction in tariffs that were recently imposed on China, according to the Global Port Tracer report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
Many retailers suspended or canceled orders after the Trump administration announced a 145% tariff on China in April, noted NRF VP for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold. But they have resumed imports after the announcement that tariffs were reduced to 30% and a 90-day pause that will last until Aug. 12. The higher reciprocal tariffs on other nations have also been paused until July 9 as the administration negotiates with those countries.
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“This is the busiest time of the year for retailers as they enter the back-to-school season and prepare for the fall-winter holiday season,” said Gold. “Retailers had paused their purchases and imports previously because of the significantly high tariffs. They are now looking to get those orders and cargo moving in order to bring as much merchandise into the country as they can before the reciprocal tariff and additional China tariff pauses end in July and August.”
Gold noted there is still considerable uncertainty as to what will happen after the pauses end.
“We strongly encourage the administration to continue negotiating agreements with our trading partners in order to restore predictability and stability to the supply chain,” he said.
Projections show that May saw a significant reduction in imports as shippers responded to the higher tariff environment, noted Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett. But tariff reductions will lead to a surge in imports in June through August as importers take advantage of the various 90-day pauses.
“The peak for the winter holidays will come early this year, making it simultaneous with the peak for the back-to-school season,” Hackett said. “If higher tariffs are not delayed again, we can expect the final four months of the year to see declining volumes of imports.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.21 million twenty-foot equivalent units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in April, the latest month for which final data is available and before the impact of the April tariffs was felt. That was up 2.9% from March and up 9.6% year over year.
Ports have not yet reported numbers for May — when the April tariffs began to have an impact — but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.91 million TEU, down 13.4% from April and down 8.1% year over year. That would be the first year-over-year decline since September 2023 and the lowest volume since 1.87 million TEU in December 2023.
With some tariffs now on pause, imports are expected to bounce back in June, although numbers will remain lower than last year. June is forecast at 2.01 million TEU, down 6.2% year over year. July is expected to be at 2.13 million TEU, down 8.1%, and August at 1.98 million TEU, down 14.7%.
Volume is then expected to drop sharply for the remainder of 2025, with large year-over-year declines seen partly because imports in late 2024 were elevated due to concerns about East Coast and Gulf Coast port strikes. September is forecast at 1.78 million TEU, down 21.8% year over year, and October is forecast at 1.8 million TEU, down 19.8%.
The current forecast would bring the first half of 2025 to 12.54 million TEU, up 3.7% year over year. That’s better than the 12.13 million TEU forecast last month before the tariff pause was announced, but still below the 12.78 million TEU, up 5.7% year over year, forecast before the April tariffs announcement.
Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
