Import cargo levels to drop ‘dramatically’ amid uncertainty
Import cargo at the nation’s major container ports is expected to drop dramatically beginning next month.
That’s according to the latest Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. (The report was released the day before President Trump gave a 90-day break on most of the new reciprocal tariffs that were set to go into effect while, at the same time, raising duties on China to 125%, effective immediately.)
Imports during the second half of 2025 are expected to be down at least 20% year-over-year, said Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett. Even balanced against elevated levels earlier this year, that could bring total 2025 cargo volume to a net decline of 15% or more unless the situation changes.
“In this environment of complete uncertainty, our forecast for import cargo will be subject to significant adjustments over the coming months,” Hackett said. “At present, we expect to see imports begin to decline by May and that they will drop dramatically during the remainder of the year.”
Retailers have been bringing merchandise into the country for months in attempts to mitigate against rising tarRetailers have been bringing merchandise into the country for months in attempts to mitigate against rising tariffs, noted Jonathan Gold, VP for supply chain and customs policy, NRF.
“At this point, retailers are expected to pull back and rely on built-up inventories, at least long enough to see what will happen next," he said.
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.06 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) – one 20-foot container or its equivalent – in February, although the Ports of New York and New Jersey have yet to report final data. That was down 7.5% from January but up 5.2% year-over-year. It was the busiest February in three years even through the month is traditionally the slowest of the year because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in China.
Ports have not yet reported March’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.14 million TEU, up 11.1% year-over-year. April – which includes cargo shipped before the new tariffs were announced – is forecast at 2.08 million TEU, up 3.1% year-over-year. But May is expected to end 19 consecutive months of year-over-year growth, dropping sharply to 1.66 million TEU, down 20.5% from the same time last year. June is forecast at 1.57 million TEU, the lowest volume since February 2023 and a 26.6% drop year-over-year. July is forecast at 1.69 million TEU, down 27% year-over-year, and August at 1.7 million TEU, down 26.8%.
Before the latest round of tariffs was announced, April was forecast at 2.13 million TEU, up 5.7% year-over-year; May at 2.14 million TEU, up 2.8%; June at 2.07 million TEU, down 3.2%, and July at 1.99 million TEU, down 13.9%.
The current forecast would bring the first half of 2025 to 11.73 million TEU, down 2.9% year-over-year rather than the total of 12.78 million TEU, up 5.7% year-over-year, that was forecast before the tariffs announcement.
Imports have been elevated since last summer, first as retailers brought in cargo ahead of an October strike at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports and then in anticipation of an escalation of tariffs after the November elections. Imports during 2024 totaled 25.5 million TEU, up 14.7% from 2023 and the highest since 2021’s record 25.8 million TEU during the pandemic.
Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
