The Holiday Rush: What to expect based on 2024 learnings

Data from the 2024 holiday rush paints a clear picture for how retailers can expect this peak season to play out. From earlier buying patterns to shifting delivery expectations, here's what merchants should be ready for.

Black Friday

Despite occasional rumblings, Black Friday is far from dead. 

2024 Black Friday traffic jumped nearly three compared to an average day. Overall sales across Black Friday and Cyber Monday rose 7.7% year over year, according to data from 6,000-plus merchants using ShipperHQ.

The appetite for mega-deals is still strong, but it's taking new shape. Shoppers are spreading their purchases out across the week —and even the month — taking advantage of pre-Black Friday discounts. The “Cyber Five” period (Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) may remain the pinnacle, but it’s now part of a longer arc that starts earlier and ends later.

Be prepared for sustained surges, not a single flash flood. Inventory planning, fulfillment operations, and promotions should reflect this steady climb.

Free > Fast

For years, retailers have wrestled with the question of what matters more — fast or free?

Last year, the numbers gave a decisive answer: Seventy-four percent of shoppers chose the least expensive shipping option, even if it meant waiting longer. The desire for free over fast is especially true during the holidays, when every dollar counts.

Free shipping is one of the strongest conversion levers. But, don't overlook the fact that shoppers still expect ETA accuracy and clarity, even if the delivery is slower.

Early Bird Gets the Worm

We’ve watched “peak” slowly morph from a few frenzied weeks between Thanksgiving and Christmas into a months-long marathon. And this year will be no different.

November 2024 site traffic was 40% higher than October, but many retailers noticed a meaningful uptick as early as mid-October. With marketing promotions and holiday preview sales events, the buying window keeps creeping forward.

Plus, early shoppers often return later to make additional purchases, so the first impression you make in October can directly influence your sales later in the season.

Cutoff Crunch

While the masses start early, there will always be a last-minute crowd. This is where the cutoff crunch becomes a make-or-break moment.

In 2024, major carriers’ cutoff dates for ground shipping landed just days before Christmas, leaving little room for error. When delays happen, consumers blame the brand, not the carrier.

Don't get stuck here.

Communicate cutoff dates clearly, surface real-time delivery estimates at checkout, and give shoppers flexible options (like buy online/pick-up in-store). This will lead to fewer post-purchase headaches for everyone.

Expect those time frames to remain tight this year as carriers continue to balance demand and logistics costs. Having some buffer time in your shipping calendars will put you in a stronger position.

Communication: The new conversion tool

Communication is no longer just a customer service function. It’s a conversion tool.

Shoppers reward transparency. They don’t expect perfection, but they do expect honesty. Set realistic expectations around delivery, surface accurate shipping costs early in the checkout process, and keep customers in the loop post-purchase.

Retailers who master this kind of proactive communication with clear, timely messages see fewer abandoned carts and more repeat purchases.

Think: “Order by Dec. XX for delivery before Christmas.”

Peak season is no longer a sprint — It’s a relay that starts earlier, lasts longer, and demands impeccable coordination.