Fabulous Florida: A Retail Rundown on Three Top Markets
Powerful demographic tailwinds, robust tourism growth, and a thriving consumer base make Florida a prime target for retail expansion. The Sunshine State gains nearly 1,000 new residents and welcomes 400,000 visitors daily, fueling demand for retail, restaurants, and entertainment in metros like Orlando, Jacksonville, and Tampa Bay.
Each tells a unique story of retail growth, fueled by capital from every part of the country that’s eager to invest beyond the hype of South Florida.
TAMPA BAY
Residential growth is rising across the Tampa Bay MSA, with retail hubs like Wesley Chapel, Brandon, Riverview, and Odessa emerging in northern and southern Hillsborough, Pasco, Manatee, and Polk Counties. Expansion extends south to Manatee and Sarasota Counties with major developments in Lakewood Ranch and Parrish. High-income newcomers are filling new residential units in the urban core and booming suburbs of Tampa and St. Petersburg. National big box retailers have been eager to enter this growing captive market.
With approximately $1.2 billion in total sales volume in 2024, Tampa Bay’s retail market surpassed the $1 billion mark for the fourth consecutive year.
Tampa's retail availability has been near record lows for the past two years, with a current vacancy rate of 3.5%. That’s not expected to change soon. Just 510,000 sq. ft. is under construction, mostly in build-to-suits.
Notable Developments
Gasworx: A transformative mixed-use project connecting Ybor City to downtown Tampa, including 140,000 sq. ft of retail space, 5,000 new residences, and a 28,000-sq. ft. food hall.
Water Street Tampa, Phase 2: Construction is underway on new retail and green space in this downtown neighborhood which continues to attract high-profile tenants.
ORLANDO
Orlando’s growing demand for restaurants, entertainment, and retail is fueled by rapid population growth and a strong regional economy that reaches far beyond theme parks and tourist driven resorts.
With retail vacancy under 4%, finding high-quality space remains Orlando’s biggest challenge. Only 10% of all available space is in higher quality properties, but some existing tenants are vacating. Just 3% of post-2020 properties have space available.
In 2024, Orlando attracted 75 million visitors, fueling retail sales and supporting some 30% of local jobs and half of Orange County’s sales tax revenue. Opened in May, Universal’s 750-acre Epic Universe is expected to welcome eager crowds and spur new retail developments.
Almost 800,000 sq. ft. of new retail space was completed in the metro in the last 12 months and, of the 1.4 million sq. ft. currently under construction, most is pre-leased.
Notable Developments
Lake Nona West: This 405,100-sq.-ft. open-air lifestyle center broke ground in February 2025, anchored by Target, Nordstrom Rack, Homesense, Barnes & Noble and Total Wine & More.
O-Town West and Vineland: This development on the west and east side of I-4 that holds 400,000 sq. ft. of retail features Publix, Target, Portillo’s, Pinstripes, Torchy’s Tacos and Dutch Bros Coffee.
JACKSONVILLE
This northern stronghold is currently leading Florida in retail demand. Its rapid pace of in-migration has propelled it into the top 20 largest U.S. metros by GDP gains, effectively acting as an accelerant for retail market performance.
As of Q3 2025, Jacksonville achieved 420,000 sq. ft. of net absorption over the prior 12 months. It is the strongest performance among Florida’s six major retail markets, representing over 5% of U.S. retail demand in that period.
Jacksonville delivered 740,000 sq. ft. of new retail space over the past year — ranking among the top U.S. markets for retail deliveries. Another 460,000 sq. ft. is under construction, though that’ still unlikely to accommodate the robust tenant demand.
Construction starts have fallen to the lowest level in the past decade, indicating supply constraints will persist. The market’s current vacancy rate is 4.7%, hovering near the U.S. average of 4.3%.
Notable Developments
Pearl Square: This major mixed-use development downtown broke ground late last year and will include over 1,000 residential units and 35,000 sq. ft. of retail.
Stadium of the Future: The $1.4 billion transformation for the Jacksonville Jaguars is set for completion in 2028 and will include The Four Seasons Hotel and private residences.
John Fahey and Tyler McRae are both senior VPs and managing principals for SRS Real Estate Partners.
