Deloitte: Holiday spending mostly flat to date

Increased e-commerce activity and larger transaction values are helping retailers maintain holiday spending levels from 2019.

According to the Deloitte December Spending Pulse, consumer spending increased 4% year-over-year in October and 1% year-over-year in November. More November spending occurred earlier in the month as retailers offered extended promotions and focused less on Black Friday as a singular event. 

In addition, although Deloitte analysis indicates Thanksgiving week saw an increase in visits to stores, digital traffic consistently rose throughout the month, continuing the larger trend of a digital shift which has been occurring throughout 2020. In fact, significant year-over-year growth in retail online spend during October (+35%) and November (+30%) offset losses in brick-and-mortar retail spend during those months (-8% and -11%, respectively). 

During October and November, the overall number of retail transactions decreased, but increases in average transaction value (ATV) supported modest year-over-year spending growth. October saw transactions decline 4% but ATV rise 9%, while November saw transactions fall 6% but ATV grow 7%.

Interestingly, retail spend declined 18% year-over-year on Black Friday but climbed 2% on Cyber Monday. Spending trends on those days mirrored larger trends recorded throughout the holiday season so far – Black Friday brick-and-mortar spend dropped 31% while online spend rose 19%, and Cyber Monday brick-and-mortar spend fell 8% as online spend increased 15%.