Deloitte: Holiday sales growth to slow; e-commerce to stay strong
As economic uncertainty continues to weigh on consumers, holiday sales in the United States are expected to grow at their slowest rate since the pandemic.
That’s according to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast, which said that sales are likely to increase between 2.9% and 3.4%, totaling $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion during the upcoming holiday season (November 2025 to January 2026). By comparison, holidays sales in the year-ago period increased 4.2%, to $1.57 trillion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
E-commerce is expected to grow at a “healthy” pace of between 7% and 9% year over year during the 2025–2026 holiday season, totaling between $305 billion and $310.7 billion, according to Deloitte. E-commerce sales in the year-ago period (seasonally adjusted and excluding gasoline stations, motor vehicles and parts dealers, and food services) grew 8.0% totaling an estimated $285 billion.
“Our forecast anticipates that e-commerce sales will stay strong as consumers keep leveraging online deals to stretch their spending power,” said Natalie Martini, vice chair, Deloitte, and U.S. retail and consumer products leader. “Retailers who remain focused on delivering value throughout the season have a prime opportunity to drive growth during what continues to be a critical time for their businesses."
Deloitte anticipates that disposable personal income will grow between 3.1% to 5.4% this holiday season. The global accounting and advisory firm said that it has found disposable income growth to be a sound predictor of retail and e-commerce sales.
“Steady growth in income can help offset some economic uncertainty, including any labor market weakness and the burden of high credit card and student debt on consumer spending," said Akrur Barua, economist, Deloitte Insights. "While elevated inflation will likely weigh on the volume of retail sales growth, it will nevertheless be a tailwind for the dollar value spent on retail purchases in the holiday season."
[READ MORE: PwC: Average holiday spend set to drop 5% this year — biggest decline in five years]
Deloitte anticipates that disposable personal income will grow between 3.1% to 5.4% this holiday season. The global accounting and advisory firm said that it has found disposable income growth to be a sound predictor of retail and e-commerce sales.
Earlier this week, Bain & Company released its annual U.S. retail holiday forecast. It project that sales in November and December will increase 4% year over year, totaling more than $975 billion.
