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Consumer sentiment declines to seven-month low amid high-inflation worries

Many consumers also appear worried that high inflation will return within the next year.

U.S. consumers are growing less confident as they worry that high inflation will make a comeback this year.

The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 67.8 in a preliminary February reading, down from 71.1 in the prior month. It was the lowest reading since July. The metric is down 11.8% year-over-year.

Consumers views on current economic conditions decreased 7.2% in February to 68.7% from 74.0 the previous months. It’s down 13.% year-over-year.

Looking further out, the index of consumer expectations fell 2.9% in February to 67.3 from 69.3 the previous month. It’s down 10.5% year-over-year.

The drop in sentiment cut across political party lines and demographics, noted Joanne Hsu, surveys of consumers director.

“The decrease was pervasive, with Republicans, Independents, and Democrats all posting sentiment declines from January, along with consumers across age and wealth groups,” she said. “Furthermore, all five index components deteriorated this month, led by a 12% slide in buying conditions for durables, in part due to a perception that it may be too late to avoid the negative impact of tariff policy.”

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Inflation

Many consumers also appear worried that high inflation will return within the next year, Hsu said. Year ahead inflation expectations jumped up from 3.3% last month to 4.3% this month, the highest reading since November 2023 and marking two consecutive months of unusually large increases.

“This is only the fifth time in 14 years we have seen such a large one-month rise (one percentage point or more) in year-ahead inflation expectations,” Hsu said. “The current reading is now well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic.

Long-run inflation expectations ticked up from 3.2% last month to 3.3% this month. Long-run inflation expectations remain elevated relative to the 2.2-2.6% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic. 

 Final data for February will be released on Friday, Feb. 21.

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