Consumer confidence inched up in July
Consumer confidence rebounded slightly in July as Americans felt more optimistic about the future even as they continued to worry that tariffs would lead to higher prices.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose by 2.0 points in July to 97.2 from 95.2 in June. The Present Situation Index — based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions — fell 1.5 points to 131.5. The Expectations Index — based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions — rose 4.5 points to 74.4.
“Consumer confidence has stabilized since May, rebounding from April’s plunge, but remains below last year’s heady levels,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, global indicators at The Conference Board. “In July, pessimism about the future receded somewhat, leading to a slight improvement in overall confidence.”
Tariffs/Inflation
Consumers’ write-in responses showed that tariffs remained top of mind and were mostly associated with concerns that they would lead to higher prices, added Guichard. In addition, references to high prices and inflation rose in July, even though consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations eased slightly to 5.8%, down from 5.9% in June and a peak of 7% in April.
“A number of survey respondents mentioned the recent budget reconciliation legislation passed by Congress (referring to it as the “Big Beautiful Bill”) — with some consumers praising its potential positive economic impact and others expressing concerns,” Guichard said. “However, the bill and its implications were relatively low on the list of themes that consumers were focused on in July.”
Spending Plans
Purchasing plans for cars and homes declined in July, but remained stable on a six-month moving average basis. Consumers’ plans for purchasing big-ticket items were mixed, especially for appliances, while plans to buy most electronic goods ticked up slightly.
Consumers’ intentions to purchase more services ahead weakened for a second month, with almost all services categories declining. Dining out remained tops among spending intentions in services. However, dining out was also one of the categories seeing the largest decline in spending intentions in July, along with transportation and lodging related to personal travel.
July’s confidence gain was driven by consumers over 35 years old and shared across all income groups except those earning below $15,000 annually.
Specifics from the July report are below:
Present Situation
Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions were slightly more positive in July.
- 20.1% of consumers said business conditions were “good,” down from 20.5% in June.
- But only 14.3% said business conditions were “bad,” down from 15.0%.
Consumers’ views of the labor market cooled somewhat in July.
- 30.2% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” up from 29.4% in June.
- However, 18.9% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” up from 17.2%.
Expectations Six Months Hence
Consumers were less pessimistic about future business conditions in July.
- 18.4% of consumers expected business conditions to improve, up from 17.1% in June.
- 23.3% expected business conditions to worsen, down from 24.8%.
Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also less negative in July.
- 17.5% of consumers expected more jobs to be available, up from 15.9% in June.
- 25.4% anticipated fewer jobs, down slightly from 25.7%.
Consumers’ outlook for their income prospects was more positive in July.
- 18.2% of consumers expected their incomes to increase, up from 17.6% in June.
- 12.0% expected their income to decrease, down from 12.9%.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted for The Conference Board by Toluna, a technology company that delivers real-time consumer insights and market research through its innovative technology, expertise, and panel of over 36 million consumers. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was July 20.
