Consumer confidence declines to five-month low in September on job worries
U.S. consumer confidence fell in September to its lowest level since April amid growing concerns about jobs and the broader economy.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell by by 3.6 points in September to 94.2, down from 97.8 in August. The Present Situation Index — based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions — fell by 7.0 points to 125.4, registering its largest drop in a year.
“Consumers' assessment of business conditions was much less positive than in recent months, while their appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, global indicators at The Conference Board. “This is consistent with the decline in job openings.”
Among consumers' write-in responses, there was a rise in mentions of jobs and employment to a level unseen since August 2024. The comments were mostly negative, especially when referring to the current situation. But there were a few positive comments which mostly conveyed hopes that things would get better.
Consumers' write-in responses showed that references to prices and inflation rose in September, regaining its top position as the main topic influencing consumers' views of the economy, noted Guichard.
“References to tariffs declined this month, but remained elevated and continued to be associated with concerns about higher prices,” she said. Nonetheless, consumers' average 12-month inflation expectations inched down, to 5.8% in September from 6.1% in August. This is still notably above 5.0%, the level at the end of 2024."
Expectations also weakened in September, but to a lesser extent. The Expectations Index —based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions — decreased by 1.3 points to 73.4.
Consumers' views of their family's current and future financial situation both weakened in September.
“Notably, consumers' views of their current financial situation recorded the largest one-month drop since we started to collect this data in July 2022,” Guichard said.
The share of consumers thinking that a recession is very likely over the next 12 months rose slightly in September, to the highest level since May. In addition, more consumers thought that the economy was already in recession.
Purchasing Plans
Purchasing plans for cars weakened in September, with buying intentions for both used and new cars declining. But purchasing plans for homes jumped to a four-month high.
Consumers' plans to buy big-ticket items were little changed overall, with variation across different types of appliances. Intentions to purchase TVs and dryers saw the largest increase in September, refrigerators saw the largest declines.
Electronics purchase intentions were mostly up, with smartphones leading the rise. Consumers' intentions to purchase more services ahead deteriorated. Almost all types of services registered a decline in buying intentions, especially travel-related services. Vacation intentions fell again to the lowest level since April, with intentions to travel abroad driving the decline.
Other insights from the September report are below:
Present Situation
Consumers' assessments of current business conditions deteriorated in September.
- 19.5% of consumers said business conditions were "good," down from 21.8% in August.
- 15.4% said business conditions were "bad," up from 14.6%.
Consumers' views of the labor market cooled further in September.
- 26.9% of consumers said jobs were "plentiful," down from 30.2% in August.
- 19.1% of consumers said jobs were "hard to get," unchanged from last month.
Expectations Six Months Hence
Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future business conditions in September.
- 18.7% of consumers expected business conditions to improve, down from 20.2% in August.
- 22.3% expected business conditions to worsen, also down from 23.5%.
Consumers were more worried about the labor market outlook in September.
- 16.1% of consumers expected more jobs to be available, down from 17.9% in August.
- 25.6% anticipated fewer jobs, down slightly from 25.9%.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on an online sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Toluna.
