Conference Board: Global CEOs most worried about a trade war, recession
Geopolitical risks that can result in such impacts as production delays, sanctions and more are among the major worries of corporate executives around the world. Closer to home, the U.S. national debt is a major concern.
CEOs globally rank intensified trade wars as the top geopolitical risk to their companies in 2025, followed by foreign cyber attacks and an increased risk of conflict in Asia-Pacific, according to The Conference Board’s “C-Suite Outlook 2025.” Foreign cyber attack, ranked second globally, is most frequently cited by CEOs in the U.S. (45.3%).
When it comes to economic risks, the size of the U.S. national debt ranked as the chief economy-related geopolitical risk for U.S. chief executives (51%). While it appears CEOs globally see it as mostly a U.S. problem, a situation where the U.S. struggles to manage its debt could lead to a crisis of confidence in global financial markets, the report noted. (Among CEOs globally, higher energy prices are cited as the top economy-related geopolitical risk.)
The study, conducted Nov. 7–29, 2024 (after the U.S. elections), surveyed 1,722 C-suite executives and board members, including 508 CEOs, for their views on the issues and events they expect to significantly impact their business in 2025
Political polarization is expected to have a high impact on their organization in 2025, according to CEOs in the U.S. and Europe — and Conference Board research indicates the polarization challenge will intensify in coming years.
Political polarization creates both risks and opportunities for businesses, according to the report. On the risk side, politically charged legal battles increase the risk of litigation. Consumers may boycott businesses whose political views they disagree with, leading to reputational damage and financial losses and adding pressure on firms to take public stances on sensitive political issues.
“However, companies that carefully manage their political engagement, consumer perceptions, and regulatory compliance can find opportunity in such an environment by aligning with specific consumer segments, gaining media attention, and differentiating themselves from competitors,” the report stated. “Still, aggressively dealing with polarization is a high-risk, high-reward strategy."
Other findings from the report are below:
•Recession fears linger: Globally, 46% of CEOs identify a downturn/recession as a high-impact issue for 2025 — their #1 economic concern, and down just modestly from 53% in last year’s survey. Despite extended battles with inflation in recent years, only 11.3% of CEOs in the U.S. and 10.5% in Europe plan to raise prices.
•Supply chain shake-ups gain momentum: Roughly 80% of CEOs worldwide are planning to alter their supply chains in the next 3-5 years. That’s up significantly from last year, as leaders respond to costs, disruptions, and trade tensions. Among U.S. CEOs, 71% plan to alter their supply chains over the next three to five years, up from 54% in the 2024 survey.
•Global instability and competition on the front burner: Amid talk of tougher trade policy, CEOs worldwide named U.S.-E.U.-China tensions among the high-impact issues facing their business in 2025. That ranges from 34% of U.S. CEOs to nearly 50% in Asia and Europe.
•CEOs need more talent to integrate AI: While many are already seeing workforce productivity gains from AI, 45% of CEOs say a lack of expertise remains a top challenge to implementing AI. More than a third of CEOs globally expect rapidly advancing AI technology to affect their businesses in 2025. CEOs in the U.S.(37.1%) rank it first, followed by Japan (37.1%).
•Higher budgets for marketing tech: Thirty-seven percent of CEOs globally — including 57% in Europe and 31% in the U.S. — say they plan to increase their marketing budgets by 10% or more on AI and data analytics to support the drive for profits.
•Extreme weather taking a toll: CEOs identify destructive climate events as one of the top ESG factors impacting their business. More than half of CEOs in Japan (52.8%) cite climate events as the highest-impact issue, compared to 31.1% in the U.S. (ranked second) and 30.7% in Europe (ranked third).
•CEOs are focused on growth: CEOs are prioritizing innovation (37%), introducing new products and services (29%), and investing in technology (including AI) (26%) to grow profits.