Conference Board: Economy’s upward trend to continue

An important metric bodes well for the country’s economic recovery from the pandemic.

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United States increased by 1.6% in April to 113.3, following a 1.3% increase in March and a 0.1% increase in February. 

“With April’s large monthly gain to start the second quarter, the U.S. LEI has now recovered fully from its COVID-19 contraction—surpassing the index’s previous peak, reached at the very onset of the global pandemic in January 2020,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at The Conference Board. “While employment and production have not recovered to their pre-pandemic levels yet, the U.S. LEI suggests the economy’s upward trend should continue and growth may even accelerate in the near term.”

The Conference Board now forecasts real GDP could grow around 8% to 9% (annualized) in the second quarter, with year-over-year economic growth reaching 6.4% for 2021.”

The ten components of the Conference Board’s LEI for the United States include:
•    Average weekly hours, manufacturing;
•    Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance;
•    Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials;
•    ISM Index of New Orders;
•    Manufacturers’ new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders;
•    Building permits, new private housing units;
•    Stock prices, 500 common stocks;
•    Leading Credit Index;
•    Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds; and
•    Average consumer expectations for business conditions.