Circana: U.S. consumer tech sales to rise 0.2% in 2026; prices to increase about 3%
U.S. spending on consumer technology products is expected to increase this year after declining in 2025 due to a challenged back half of the year.
Tech sales will grow 0.2% to $112 billion in 2026, according to the most recent “Future of Technology” report from Circana. Sales revenue in the first half of 2025 increased 0.7%. But initial results indicate the second half of the year was impacted by growing financial pressures and softened fourth-quarter demand, resulting in a projected 2.2% decline compared to 2024.
“Late 2025 spending shows evidence of a split in consumer electronics spending patterns, with higher-income cohorts driving growth, but struggling to offset a pull-back by lower- and middle-income buyers,” said Paul Gagnon, VP and technology industry advisor for Circana. “That spending pattern split will endure, with price elevation expected to continue through 2026.”
Consumers pulled forward their anticipated 2025 purchases into the first half of the year due to concerns about tariffs raising prices, according to the report. For many consumers, financial conditions grew more challenging in the second half of the year, with higher-income cohorts sustaining spending into the second half. Demand softened in the fourth quarter as consumers focused more on essentials and pull-forward sales impacted planned second-half purchases.
Computers
Computers were the primary source of industry growth in 2025 and will be again in 2026, increasing by more than $600 million compared to 2025, though slowing considerably, forecast Circana. Notebook and desktop computers will contribute equally to growth as consumers continue with a replacement cycle refresh. Also, the end of Windows 10 support will spur some additional replacement of older PCs.
Tablets will be the second largest source of growth, with more than $200 million in incremental revenue this year, according to the report. Additional pockets of growth in 2026 will come from innovative product categories, such as smart glasses.
In other findings, overall average prices will climb about 3% in 2026, matching the pace of growth in 2025. Some of the price elevation is due to a continued shift in product mix toward more expensive products such as PCs. But more organic cost increases will also play a role, such as with a rise in the price of memory that is used in many consumer electronics products.
“Consumers remain focused on value in 2026 just as in 2025, fueled by economic uncertainty and some rising product costs,” added Gagnon. “Innovative products and a need to replace aging devices will help to offset more pragmatic spending tendencies."