Circana: Office supplies market to hit $11.1 billion in 2026
Higher prices are expected to continue to offset declining unit volumes in the office supplies market.
That’s according to Circana’s latest “Future of Office Supplies” forecast, which found that, despite ongoing macroeconomic pressures and softer demand, the U.S. office supplies industry is projected to reach $11.1 billion in sales in 2026, representing a modest 0.1% decline versus 2025,
Across the industry, unit sales are projected to fall 2.8% in 2026, while average selling prices rise roughly 2.8%
Rising costs and inflationary pressures continue to shape consumer behavior, noted Circana. Average selling prices have increased approximately 5% year to date, while actual unit prices are up as much as 7%, contributing to a 4% decline in total unit volumes. Such increases have created a value-driven environment where seasonal events are even more important.
Back-to-School
Back-to-school will capture a disproportionate share of annual spending, with consumers prioritizing promotional periods to manage budgets. But Circana expects the rising prices to support growth of just under 1% during this year’s back-to-school shopping season.
“While the office supplies industry continues to face headwinds and demand pressures, the outlook reveals a degree of consumer resilience, with pricing acting as the primary growth lever,” said Ben Arnold, industry advisor, office supplies at Circana. “Promotions and seasonal events like back-to-school shopping are increasingly critical demand drivers as consumers exhibit more trade-down behaviors.”
Circana expects the broader office supply industry to remain flat to slightly down. But several segments are expected to outperform in 2026, including writing instruments, specialty tape and self-stick notes, and creative and art-related supplies. Slight declines will persist in core categories such as coloring/art, office paper, and presentation/reference.
"Current shifting dynamics are fundamentally reshaping both retail and commercial demand for office supplies,” Arnold added. “While digital adoption continues to accelerate, there remains strong interest in tactile, creative, and analog solutions. The essential role of office supplies — particularly during key seasonal moments — continues to support the industry’s resilience.”
