CEO confidence falls in Q4; cybersecurity, AI among top five risks
CEO confidence fell in the fourth quarter to its lowest level since the second quarter of 2025, according to a study which also tracked plans for capital spending, employment and wages.
The Conference Board “Measure of CEO Confidence” (in collaboration with The Business Council) fell to 46 in the fourth quarter of 2026, down six points points from 52 in the third quarter. (A reading below 50 reflects more negative than positive responses).
“This reversed a mild rebound in Q3 2026, potentially in response to rising geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices during the survey period,” said Dana M Peterson, chief economist, The Conference Board. The survey was fielded from Sept. 21 through Oct. 5.
The reading reflects a shift from mild optimism to moderate cautiousness among leaders of large U.S. firms, Peterson added. Forty-one percent expected current economic conditions to worsen over the next six months — up sharply from 19% in the third quarter.
“Regarding their own industries, CEOs were much less positive about current conditions and expect little to no improvement six months hence,” she said.
Risks related to technology — cybersecurity and AI/new technology — were top of mind for CEOs, followed closely by geopolitics. Financial/economic and legal/regulatory rounded out the top five risks.
[READ MORE: Comcast Business: 2,500 cybersecurity events occur every second]
Capex Intentions
Despite weaker views of the overall economy and conditions in their own industries, most CEOs (53%) expect to maintain or even increase (36%) their existing capital investment plans. Only 11% expected to revise spending plans downward.
Planned wage increases rose in the fourth quarter with those signaling wage hikes of 4% or more rising to 16%, up from 9% last quarter, noted Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., vice chairman of The Business Council and chair emeritus of The Conference Board.
About one-third (33%) of CEOs expected to expand their workforce, down slightly from 34% in in the third quarter. This was higher than the share expecting to reduce their workforce (31%, up from 28%). Thirty-six percent of CEOs anticipated no change in their workforce.
Regarding hiring plans, 33% of CEOs expected to expand their workforce, down slightly from 34% in the third quarter.
AI
On a special series of questions about AI adoption, CEOs primarily expected AI to increase productivity and lower costs. They were most worried about sluggish AI adoption, with 45% saying that failing to transform the organization fast enough poses the great Al-related risk threat to their company's enterprise value.
In other AI-related findings:
•The majority of CEOs expected AI-driven productivity gains to constitute 5% or more of their company’s plans.
•Cybersecurity threats were by far CEOs’ top (94% of respondents) AI-related concern. Other AI concerns included data privacy/leakage (37%), Al-generated misinformation or inaccurate outputs (28%), intellectual property exposure (19%) and over-reliance on AI for critical decisions (11%).
Current Conditions
The assessment of general economic conditions worsened in the fourth quarter — 37% of CEOs said economic conditions were worse, up from 26% in the third quarter. Twenty-nine percent said conditions in their own industries were worse, up from 23%.
The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence is a barometer of the health of the U.S .economy from the perspective of U.S. chief executives. The measure of CEO confidence is based on CEOs' perceptions of current and expected business and industry conditions.
