Budgets/Spending/Market Size

In the strongest forecast so far this year, holiday spending is expected to reach its highest point since the Great Recession, led by strong digital sales.   That’s according to PwC’s 2016 Holiday Outlook, which forecasts a 10% total rise in holiday spending over last year, and a 25% rise in digital sales.    “The great news for all retailers is consumers are much more optimistic this holiday season,” said Steven Barr, PwC’s U.S. retail & consumer leader. 

In its new study of retail bankruptcies, Fitch Ratings identified seven retailers as being “at risk” for filing bankruptcy in the next year to 24 months.  

E-commerce is on the rise in the grocery segement.    Online grocery sales are gaining momentum, reaching $48 billion in 12 months as of June 2016, according the “Future of E-commerce,” a report from Kantar Worldpanel. While the overall consumer packaged goods market remained flat, increasing just 1.6% over the 12-month period, online grocery sales are outpacing the market.  

Aritzia Inc. is expected to raise C$400 million ($302 million) in its initial public offering.   The company, based in Vancouver, sells fashion-forward clothes and accessories for young women. It has 75 stores in North America, including locations in New York, New Jersey, Toronto, Montreal, Boston, and Chicago, along with an online business.  

Americans will open their purses for holiday shopping regardless of whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump wins the election.      A survey of American voters by RetailNext found the vast majority will not let the outcome of election 2016 affect their planned spending this coming holiday season.   

Half of all American households might have an Amazon Prime membership by the end of this year.

Cowen and Company analyst John Blackledge estimates that approximately 44% of U.S. households are Prime members, and that  penetration could accelerate to 50% by the end of the year, according to a report by CNBC.   

Prime has maintained healthy growth largely due to [its] increasing value proposition," Blackledge said. 

Dollar stores and off-price chains account for half of the spots on a list of 10 retailers adding the most new store square footage, according to commercial real estate and analytics firm CoStar.       Walmart tops the list, followed by Dollar General and Forever 21, according to a report by the Chicago Tribune.     Click here to read more.

E-commerce may lose some appeal among shoppers this holiday season.   While some industry analysts are predicting more than 15% increases in e-commerce growth during the 2016 shopping season, NetElixir’s “2016 Holiday Outlook” report predicts that e-commerce growth may only hit 11%. This conservative gain is being blamed on earlier-than-usual promotions and purchasing of holiday gifts; retailers’ use of online marketplaces rather than exclusively selling directly on their sites, and the uncertain political environment.

It’s no trick: Halloween spending is at an all-time high.   As Americans continue to splurge on their favorite candy and costumes in preparation for the upcoming Halloween season, the National Retail Federation’s annual survey reported that spending is expected to reach $8.4 billion — the highest level in the study’s history.  

The nation’s improving job market has a down side for the retail industry, particularly as the crucial holiday season arrives.   With the U.S. employment rate declining and minimum wages rising, it’s getting more challenging and more expensive for retailers to attract the best workers, reported CNBC.