Adobe predicts big increase in curbside pickup as shipping dates extend out

Marianne Wilson
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Online shopping saw a massive 48.8% increase year-over-year in the days following Cyber Monday (Dec. 1 through Dec.9), according to new data from Adobe.

Adobe attributed the jump to shoppers accelerating online spending ahead of Dec. 11, the predicted date shipping costs are expected to increase in order to receive gifts by Christmas. With the passing of the shipping deadline, Adobe expects curbside pickup to top 50% of the share of orders shipped from retailers who offer the service.

“In the coming days, as shipping costs rise and expected delivery dates extend beyond Christmas, shoppers will flock to the convenience and relative safety of curbside shopping to get the presents and other holiday goods they need,” said Taylor Schreiner, director, Adobe Digital Insights.

Based on current online shopping behaviors, Adobe is predicting U.S. online holiday sales will total at least $184 billion, a 30% increase over last year. Season spending to date is $136.0 billion, up 32.6%.

Additional Adobe findings since Cyber Monday are below:

Curbside Pickup Acceleration: From Nov.1 through Dec. 9, curbside pickup increased by a whopping 88% year-over-year with curbside comprising a record 23% of all orders. From Dec. 1 through Dec.9, as shipping deadlines approach, curbside has grown 94% year-over-year, and retailers who offer it have seen a 33% higher conversion rate than those that don’t. 

Free Shipping: 56.4% of orders placed between Nov. 1 and Nov. 24. However, for the same time period, the minimum spend to qualify for free shipping increased 8.3% year-over-year and average shipping costs increased 23%.

Mobile shopping: Mobile continues gaining ground as a purchasing method for shoppers this season, accounting for 39% of total sales at $53 billion, a 47% year-over-year increase.

Season-to-date hot products: Toys: Lego Sets, Barbie, NERF, Paw Patrol; Video games: Super Mario 3D All-Stars, NFL, NBA & FIFA21, Just Dance 2021. Electronics: Apple AirPods, Apple Watches, Air Fryers, iPads, Fire TV and Amazon Echo.

Category insights: As Christmas approaches, gift cards have seen a 28% boost above the October daily average compared to the same period last year as shoppers turn to giving gifts virtually. Additionally, puzzles and games have seen a 12% increase, while book sales have enjoyed a surge of 10%.

• While prices have increased approximately 5% to 8% from Thanksgiving week, discounts continue to be strong across multiple categories including: sporting goods (16%), toys (15%), appliances (16%), televisions (11%) and electronics (24%).