Online holiday sales to increase 15%, according to forecast

E-commerce sales will rise this year — and so will Amazon’s share of the pie.

That’s according to retail search marketing company NetElixir, which is predicting e-commerce growth of 15% this year, up from 13% last year. It also projects that Amazon will take 40% of online holiday sales this year, up from 35% in 2017.

NetElixir’s 2018 Holiday Forecast projects that Amazon’s holiday sales will translate into $38.8 billion dollars, up $29.4 billion from last year. All other retailers combined are projected to make an additional $3.6 billion in holiday e-commerce sales this year.

In making its optimistic forecast, NetElixir cited the strong first half of 2018, which saw roughly a 17% increase in online orders and 15.5% increase in revenue compared to 2017. Back-to-school ecommerce sales increased 14% from 2017. It also cited continued mobile commerce growth, such macro-economic factors as the strong economy and record low unemployment, and the deeper discounts being offered by larger retailers around holiday time (although this has led to a lowering of average order value.).

The growing popularity of voice-search led shopping: also factored into the forecast — 30% plus of all mobile searches are expected to be voice activated. Voice search has converted the “search-shop-buy” path into just a “search-buy” path, especially for staple purchases, which is leading to an increase in the frequency of online purchases, according to NetElixir.

“Our models are forecasting a very optimistic holiday season for retailers,” said Udayan Bose, founder and CEO of NetElixir. “We are also seeing new buying trends being spurred by the adoption of new technologies. So while retailers can expect overall e-commerce growth, to reap the benefits they should be adapting their e-commerce channels to coincide with these changing consumer behaviors.”

NetElixir forecasts that holiday gifting-related search query volume will pick up from Sunday, Oct. 21. NetElixir also identifies three peak online shopping periods for this year’s holiday shopping:

• Five-day period from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday (11/22-11/26)
• Green Monday period (12/9-12/12)
• Mobile shopping spike (12/18-12/21)