Poll: Real estate recovery not immediate

San Francisco A new poll by LoopNet, the nation’s largest commercial real estate listing service online, has found that the majority of the commercial real estate industry believes the timing of a real estate recovery has been pushed back.

According to the “LoopNet Pulse Poll,” which queried LoopNet members, including real estate investors, brokers and owners, of the 2,000 polled just 10% expect to see a recovery in 2009, versus 33% in LoopNet’s last survey.

In addition, the number expecting a recovery to wait until 2011 has increased from 25% to 33%.

On the bright side, however, the number of respondents predicting the market will recover in 2010 has increased from 42% to 56%, according to the poll, with expectations for a second-quarter/third-quarter uptick.

There is general agreement on the timing of an increase in transaction volume across brokers, investors and owners, although slightly more investors expect an increase to wait until 2011. Relative to the earlier survey, however, owners have had the most significant tempering of expectations.

In the May survey, 33% of owners anticipated a recovery in transaction volumes in 2010, which was far higher than the percentage of brokers or investors. In the current survey, the percentage of owners anticipating a 2009 recovery has fallen to 10%, much more in line with the other two segments.

Overall, respondents are expecting significant further declines in price, with 11% to 20% being the most prevalent prediction and about 20% expecting declines of 20% or more.

Regarding real estate pricing, there was no clear consensus on when it will hit its lowest level, although 60% of respondents expect the lowest levels to occur between fourth quarter 2009 and third quarter 2010, with a slight bias toward the first half of this time period. A substantial number (17%) expect continued declines through 2011.

When asked which property sector offers the best long-term investment opportunity, multifamily was the overwhelming favorite for all three major survey participant segments -- brokers, investors and owners.