Placer.ai: Back-to-school traffic expected to be strong
Retail traffic has remained steady this year, which bodes well for retailers ahead of back-to-school shopping.
That’s according to a new report from Placer.ai, which found that overall retail traffic in 2025 has remained generally on par with 2024 levels. Between January and May 2025, retail visits were 0.4% higher than for the equivalent period in 2024, with April and May 2025 visits up 2.3% and 1.3%, respectively. The strongest year-over-year visit increase in 2025 so far in January – when visits were up 3.4% compared to January 2024.
With the consumer remaining “resilient,” according to Placer.ai, certain categories are primed to perform better than others during the back-to-school push. Last year, sportswear & athleisure and footwear retailers saw the largest back to school visit jumps, followed by office supplies and traditional apparel (excluding off-price, department stores, and sportswear & athleisure). These segments all saw slight visit increases in May 2025 and are likely to continue seeing sizable traffic spikes for back to school season this year.
However, Placer.ai says that visit data from April and March of this year reveals that the retail categories seeing the strongest visit trends currently are the segments that get a slightly smaller boost from back-to-school – including furniture & home furnishings, off-price retailers, and thrift stores.
Placer.ai noted that some of this strength may be attributed to pull-forward of demand or to shoppers' value-orientation (driving visits up for off-price and thrift stores). However, these categories' recent success may also suggest that home furnishings, off-price apparel, and thrift stores could see higher volumes of consumer traffic this year compared to 2024.
A recent report from PwC reveals that nearly three-in-four back-to-school shoppers expect to spend the same or more on back-to-school shopping this fall. More than one-in-three parents anticipate spending more than they did in 2024.
Placer.ai also offered a breakdown of predicted back-to-school season success by state. Retail traffic in Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Montana was 3.0% to 5.1% in May 2025 higher than in May 2024, while Utah's retail chains received a 5.0% year-over-year boost in traffic. Consumers in these states may be particularly primed to spend this summer.
Meanwhile, several Eastern states (Ohio, New York, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia) saw annual declines in May 2025 retail visits, which could suggest that consumer confidence in those states is slightly more muted.
[READ MORE: Placer.ai: Mall visits rise for second consecutive month in May]
“Ahead of the 2025 back to school season, retail traffic data paints the picture of a generally resilient consumer, despite the regional variability,” said Shira Petrack, head of content at Placer.ai. “And while last year's big back-to-school winners will likely perform well again in 2025, more secondary back-to-school categories – including home furnishings, off-price, and thrift stores – may be the ones to come out on top this year.”
