NRF: Imports to surge before holidays

Washington, D.C. - Import cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports is expected to see a final surge and set a new monthly record in October as the holiday season approaches. According to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, import volume at U.S. ports covered by the Global Port Tracker report is expected to total 1.53 million containers in October, topping the 1.52 million monthly record set in August.



Cargo volume has been well above average each month since spring as retailers have imported merchandise early in case of any disruption on the docks.



The contract between the Pacific Maritime Association and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union expired on July 1, prompting concerns about potential disruptions that could affect back-to-school or holiday merchandise. Dockworkers remain on the job as negotiations continue but the lack of a contract and operational issues have led to record congestion at the ports.



The 1.52 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units handled in August, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available, was up 1.5% from July and 2.1% from August 2013. One TEU is one 20-foot cargo container or its equivalent.



September was estimated at 1.48 million TEU, up 2.8% from the same month the prior year, and October’s forecast of 1.53 million TEU would be up 6.4% from 2013. November is forecast at 1.39 million TEU, up 3.7%, and December at 1.37 million TEU, up 3.9%.



Those numbers would bring 2014 to a total of 17.1 million TEU, an increase of 5.3% from 2013’s 16.2 million. Imports in 2012 totaled 15.8 million. The first half of 2014 totaled 8.3 million TEU, up 7% from the previous year.



January 2015 is forecast at 1.42 million TEU, up 3.5% from January 2014, while February is forecast at 1.35 million TEU, up 8.5% from the previous year.



The import numbers come as NRF is forecasting 4.1% holiday season sales growth and 3.6% growth for 2014 overall. Cargo volume does not correlate directly with sales but is a barometer of retailers’ expectations.



“Increasing congestion at the nation’s ports as well as the ongoing West Coast labor negotiations are ongoing concerns and retailers are making one last push to make sure they’re stocked up for the holidays,” said NRF VP for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold. “Retailers are working hard to make sure customers can find what they’re looking for regardless of what happens at the ports.”