NRF: Sales rise at steady pace in March

Total retail sales increased in March, with experts noting increased spending amid easing inflation.

According to the CNBC/National Retail Federation (NRF) Retail Monitor, total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were up 0.36% seasonally adjusted month-over-month (MoM) and up 2.72% unadjusted year-over-year (YoY) in March. That compared with increases of 0.4% MoM and 2.7% YoY in February.

The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales – excluding restaurants in addition to automobiles and gasoline – was up 0.23% MoM and up 2.92% YoY in March. Those figures are down slightly compared with increases of 0.27% MoM and 2.99% YoY in February.

For the first quarter, total retail sales were up 2.65% YoY, while core sales were up 3.12%. Last month, NRF projected that retail sales will increase between 2.5% and 3.5% in 2024 to between $5.23 trillion and $5.28 trillion.

“As inflation for goods levels off, March’s data demonstrates steady spending by value-focused consumers who continue to benefit from a strong labor market and real wage gains,” said NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay. “In this highly competitive market, retailers are having to keep prices as low as possible to meet the demand of consumers looking to stretch their family budgets.”

Sales in March were up in six out of nine retail categories on a yearly basis, led by online sales, sporting goods stores and health and personal care stores. A breakdown of sales by sector is as follows:

• Online and other non-store sales were up 2.48% MoM seasonally adjusted and up 15.47% YoY unadjusted.
• Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were up 0.86% MoM seasonally adjusted and up 8.33% YoY unadjusted.
• Health and personal care stores were up 0.03% MoM seasonally adjusted and up 4.5% YoY unadjusted.
• Grocery and beverage stores were up 1.17% MoM and up 4.22% YoY unadjusted.
• General merchandise stores were up 0.13% MoM seasonally adjusted and up 3.38% YoY unadjusted.
• Clothing and accessories stores were down 0.01% MoM and up 2.13% YoY unadjusted.
• Building and garden supply stores were down 2.13% MoM and down 3.97% YoY unadjusted.
• Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 1.46% MoM seasonally adjusted and down 5.28% YoY unadjusted.
• Electronics and appliance stores were down 2.27% MoM seasonally adjusted and down 5.92% YoY unadjusted.

This is the sixth month that the Retail Monitor, which was launched in November 2023, has provided data on monthly retail sales. Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.