NRF: February sales see monthly dip over tariff concern
Tariff concerns slowed consumer spending in February compared to January, but retail sales still increased year-over-year during the month.
Core retail sales (excluding restaurants, automobile dealers and gasoline stations) fell 0.22% month-over-month in February but rose 4.11% year-over-year, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released by the National Retail Federation. That compared with a decrease of 1.27% month-over-month and an increase of 5.72% year-over-year in January.
Total retail sales in February, excluding automobiles and gasoline but including restaurants, were also down 0.22% seasonally adjusted month-over-month, but up 3.38% unadjusted year-over-year in February. That compared with a decrease of 1.07% month-over-month and an increase of 5.44% year-over-year in January.
“Consumer spending dipped slightly again in February due to the combination of harsh winter weather and declining consumer confidence driven by tariffs, concerns about rising unemployment and policy uncertainty,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Unease about the probability of inflation and paying higher prices for non-discretionary goods has the value-conscious consumer spending less and saving more. But for the moment, year-over-year gains reflect an economy with strong fundamentals.”
Total sales were up 4.41% year-over-year for the first two months of the year and core sales were up 4.91%. That compares with 3.6% growth for the full year in 2024.
The February monthly downturn came after President Donald Trump announced 10% tariffs on goods from China and 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico at the beginning of February. The Canada-Mexico tariffs were immediately delayed by a month, then delayed again for most goods until April 2 last week, but the tariffs on China were doubled to 20%.
The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped to 64.7 in February from 71.7 in January, marking the second monthly decline after five months of small gains.
[READ MORE: NRF: Public policy uncertainties ‘blur’ 2025 economic outlook]
February sales were up in six out of nine categories on a yearly basis, led by online sales, health and personal care stores, and general merchandise stores. Sales were down in all but two categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:
- Online and other non-store sales were up 0.46% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 36.51% year-over-year unadjusted.
- Health and personal care stores were down 0.44% month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 8.33% year-over-year unadjusted.
- General merchandise stores were down 0.42% month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 6.2% year-over-year unadjusted.
- Grocery and beverage stores were down 0.07% month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 4.08% year-over-year unadjusted.
- Clothing and accessories stores were down 0.78% month-over-month seasonally adjusted but up 3.75% year-over-year unadjusted.
- Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were up 0.93% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 3.57% year-over-year unadjusted.
- Electronics and appliance stores were down 0.43% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and down 0.06% year-over-year unadjusted.
- Building and garden supply stores were down 1.02% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and down 3.34% year-over-year unadjusted.
- Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 1.01% month-over-month seasonally adjusted and down 3.67% year-over-year unadjusted.
Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.
