Very few customers decide fate of new CPG items

St. Petersburg, Fla. – A surprisingly small number of consumers makes or breaks new CPG products. According to a study from personalized digital media company Catalina, less than 1% of consumers drive the vast majority of volume for most new CPG products.

In addition, the study uncovered extremely low retention rates for most new products, with just 11% of triers in the first six months of a launch still engaged with a new item after one year.



The study finds that just 0.7%, or one in 143 shoppers, accounted for 80% of volume for the average new product studied. Of the 50 new food and beverage products analyzed, just eight had shopper concentrations of more than 1% driving 80% of volume, and only one had a concentration above 2%.



"The percentage of households that make or break the success of new CPG products is very small," said Marla Thompson, senior VP of U.S. strategy for Catalina. "Our study makes it clear that it is critical for brands and retailers to find likely triers and continue engaging them over time to sustain repeat purchasing. It also shows that purchase-based targeting can be a cornerstone of successful new product launches."



According to the report, engaging shoppers based on predictive modeling of their likelihood to buy can result in trial rates that are five times more than the natural trial rate.



The study also demonstrated a major distribution challenge for new products. It took 28 weeks for the average new product to reach 75% of its peak distribution in stores tracked in the study. This long delay creates significant inefficiencies for national mass media campaigns.